The Athletic Puts Bruins’ Outlook on Charlie McAvoy’s Shoulders

“At his best, McAvoy is both a throwback player — size, strength, physicality and intangibles — and a thoroughly modern one,” The Athletic wrote in their Bruins' season preview. “That mega-productive stretch, though, hasn’t come.”

McAvoy's recent decline has been most evident on the power play, where his production has dropped from 6.3 points per 60 minutes in 2023 to 3.3 two years ago and just 1.4 last season.

The Athletic projected him as a No. 1 defenseman, but not an elite one, noting that his ceiling lags behind that of fellow defensemen like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Miro Heiskanen. Still, with McAvoy turning 28 in December, there is optimism that he can push back into Norris Trophy contention.

“He’s got competitiveness and skating and wants to lead,” one scout told The Athletic. “It’s a big year for Charlie, but Charlie’s a really good player.”

The Bruins’ overall forecast reflects the uncertainty surrounding McAvoy.

After finishing with 76 points last season, Boston's playoff odds sit at 16 percent in The Athletic's model, with another bottom-five finish more likely than not.

The Athletic noted that “a lot depends on just how much McAvoy and (goaltender Jeremy) Swayman bounce back to their previous franchise-level form,” saying a full rebound from both would make for the best outcome in Boston.

The best-case scenario is a 93-point season with the Bruins powered by McAvoy, Swayman, and David Pastrnak. The worst-case scenario is a 68-point collapse that forces a rebuild sooner than expected, and one that might have already started and gone under the radar with last season's trade of former team captain Brad Marchand to the eventual champions, the Florida Panthers.