The Blame Game: John Gibson

Is Detroit’s Defence to Blame for Gibson’s Struggles?

There is some weight to this for the record. Let’s start with the stats, all from the wonderful people at Moneypuck.

• Detroit’s expected goals against is 24th in the league at 36.59
• Detroit is 16th in the league with 330 shots against
• Detroit is 28th in high danger shots against with 40
• Detroit has 108 defensive zone giveaways for 19th in the league

So based on all that, it makes sense why Gibson has struggled. Because it might be hard to follow, because all of those are negative stats, the lower your rank, the worse you are. So, in layman’s terms, Detroit is the 6th worst in allowing high danger shots. So, yeah, it’s possible Detroit’s defence is just giving up too many good looks and the goaltending just doesn’t have a chance. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

• Detroit is 20th in rebound shots against
• Gibson gives up 0.7 rebounds per save
• Detroit has the 12th most blocked shots in the league
• Detroit has blocked 22.19% of the shots attempts Gibson has faced

Because Gibson turns out to be the reason for so many rebound shots against, he actually ends up being the reason for so many high-danger chances against. Not to mention, Detroit puts their body on the line pretty much every game for both goalies. Detroit is blocking shots in pretty much every game. So is Detroit’s defence to blame? Maybe. It certainly doesn’t help, but generally, Detroit’s defence is about league average by most combined metrics. So there might be more to the story.

Is Gibson the Problem?

Wanna hear something odd? No, Gibson is not really the problem with his play. Gibson has been all over the place in metrics overall. Throughout the season, Gibson has some interesting numbers.

• John Gibson has a +0.11 WAR
• John Gibson has a +0.014 high danger save percentage above expected
• John Gibson has a steal

Looking at the raw numbers, if it were another random NHL goalie, they would perform about the same as John Gibson has, if not slightly worse. Now, should Gibson be above this bar? Yes. However, when using Dobber Frozen Tools, some numbers definitely stand out.

• John Gibson has a -3.64 GSAx
• John Gibson has two RBS (games with a save percentage below .850)
• Only 4 of Gibsons 9 starts have seen Gibson at league average or above in save percentage
• John Gibson has a .882% save percentage

Well, there are the less flattering numbers. Gibson should have more saves than he does, blanket statement, but the numbers back that up too. Gibson not even being league average in the majority of his starts is a huge problem and one that shouldn’t be downplayed. While there are numbers that support and go against blaming Gibson, I do think the majority of them favour Gibson being the problem. However, even with that, I want to propose a third option.

Consistency is the Problem with John Gibson

Gibson clearly has a consistency problem. While Gibson has 5 starts below league average save percentage, he also has two starts above a .965% save percentage in 9 games. I dug a little more into both those games, and I found something really odd with the heat maps. In Gibson’s two best games, nearly all of the Tampa and Vegas’ scoring chances came within 15 feet of the net. In the games where he played his worst, like Montreal and Chicago, the scoring chances were further away. Gibson has shown flashes of elite goaltending, but he’s also shown that he gets beaten more by snipes rather than the goals in tight.

Verdict:

Yeah, Gibson is the problem right now. He needs to be making more saves, and the Red Wings’ defence looks fine in front of him. However, given the moments he has played well, the next steps seem to be there; don’t give shooters time and space to shoot up high, it’ll beat him. Down low or in tight, Gibson can hold his own.

More to Read:

Hot or Him: Over-Performances or Improved Players?

RED HOT WINGS: How Has Detroit Started So Hot?