The Common Denominator Among Elite Teams

The NHL has long been a copycat league, as every offseason teams look at the organizations that had the most on-ice success and ask themselves, “What do they have that we don’t?” Now, as the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights compete in the Stanley Cup Finals, there appear to be glaring differences between their rosters, given that they took different paths to build them. While the Hurricanes have relied on drafting and development, using free agency and trades to supplement their homegrown talent, the Golden Knights have been aggressive in free agency and on the trade market, using future assets to grab talent that helped them win immediately. As glaring as their differences are, there is one obvious similarity, and that is that both teams have avoided handing out disastrous contracts, and it’s clearly a big reason why they are where they are.

Sure, you can point to the elite players, fantastic coaching, and strong drafting and development, but those factors are buoyed by the fact that both Carolina and Vegas have spent relatively wisely as it pertains to the salary cap. In fact, if you look back at all four conference finalists, there aren’t many albatross contracts to be found. The Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens have a couple of tough cap hits in Josh Anderson of the Habs and Ross Colton of the Avalanche, but both men have just one year left on their respective deals, at a $4MM AAV for Colton and $5.5MM for Anderson. Carolina also has a problematic contract in Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but the remainder of his deal can be bought this summer for 1/3 of the cost because of his age.

Even going back to last season, when the final four featured the Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars — those teams had relatively efficient salary cap structures, with their highest-paid players generally performing at or above the value of their cap hits, allowing management to build deeper rosters around them.

If you look at Edmonton as an example, they have quite a few bad contracts on the books now and have taken on arguably two of the worst contracts in the last 12 months, signing Trent Frederic to an eight-year deal and trading for what is left of goaltender Tristan Jarry’s albatross of a deal. Those poor contracts hurt the Oilers this season and could become very problematic going forward if Edmonton can’t find a way to navigate them.

It’s been a long-standing issue in the NHL, as countless teams have signed bad contracts that killed their contention window. The Pittsburgh Penguins likely shut the door on their window of contention eight years ago when they signed defenseman Jack Johnson in free agency and, the following season, traded for Erik Gudbranson. That left the Penguins paying two of the worst defensemen in the league north of $7MM combined during the 2018-19 season, before they were promptly swept in the first round by the New York Islanders.

Those bad contracts in the $3MM-$5MM add up over time, especially if you pile a few of them onto your ledger. In a hard cap league, every dollar matters, and the teams contending this season know that and have been keenly aware of how not to spend cap dollars. A $4MM cap hit tied up in an underperforming veteran isn’t horrible in a vacuum, but two of them could be a top-four defenseman, or a top-six winger, or even a second-line center.

The Hurricanes have long been accused of not spending big money, but the truth is that the team has avoided many long-term mistakes. Their core players, who were drafted and/or developed in the organization, are well compensated but still provide surplus value. Sebastian Aho remains a legitimate first-line center and is making just $9.75MM long term. Andrei Svechnikov continues to be a top-six impact winger at just $7.75MM per season. Both men remain on the right side of 30, continuing Carolina’s tradition of regularly paying players based on future value rather than past performance.

The Golden Knights have always been spenders during their short existence, but they, too, have paid for future performance and haven’t been shy about trading away popular players if it means freeing up cap space to improve the team. The team had no issue dumping goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury just a year after he won the Vezina Trophy. Fleury was beloved in Vegas, but the team was in the game of paying for future production and saw the writing on the wall with his play.

Hockey fans like to point to Vegas’ hidden competitive advantage, but the truth is that their advantage has been not handing out disastrous long-term contracts. And while every contract they have isn’t a bargain, no one is significantly underperforming relative to their cap hit, showing that championship teams are often built by avoiding big mistakes, coupled with making solid moves.

Over the next few weeks, nearly every general manager who did not win the cup will make a rash decision, justifying it by saying their team is one move away from being a contender. Some of these GMs will be praised for winning the summer, convincing themselves that the big-money contract was necessary to elevate the club. And while not every UFA signing will be a disaster, some teams will get into bidding wars and sign a player to a contract that will be bought out by their successor. But that is the price of giving top money to the wrong players, and it’s something the best teams in the NHL have managed to avoid.