The Edmonton Oilers have a point-shot problem

These heatmaps showcase 5v5 offence in terms of shots per colour. More red, more shots. More blue, less shots. As we can see, the Oilers have been seemingly unable (or unwilling) to generate shots from the slot, or around the face-off dots.

However, the one big area of red, the most high-concentration area of shots at 5v5 so far this season has come from the blueline. Point shots are not a very good way of generating offence, even if you take into account the possibility of screens in front or shots being tipped on their way to the net.

This isn’t to say they’re a fruitless endeavour, and the Oilers defence core has a number of players who can absolutely pound the puck. However, it’s not a sustainable way to generate offence. But, you might say. Who cares about the high concentration if it’s working? Are the Oilers at least finishing on these high volume attempts?

Not particularly! The Oilers finishing percentages, again per HockeyViz, have been best just above the face-off dots. You know, the main area of the offensive zone that defences sell out to protect? However, sometimes percentages, finishing numbers, and “expected stats” can be misleading, so let’s just look at cold hard facts.

Who’s taken the most shots at 5v5 this season for the Oilers? Per Natural Stat Trick, we can look at the shot total leaders for Edmonton so far.

Here are the top five shot leaders for the Oilers so far this season. Three of them, including the top two, are defencemen. Darnell Nurse is in the lead by a mile, with Mattias Ekholm behind him, then Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, and Jack Roslovic.

Why is this happening? Why is Edmonton’s offence seemingly being depended upon by defencemen taking shots from the blueline? I have two possible hypotheses.

They don’t trust their goaltending

I’m not going into an “Oilers goaltending” diatribe. That’s a topic that’s been discussed ad nauseam. However, poor goaltending results can make coaches change their systems.

In previous years, the Oilers thrived off the rush, playing with speed through the neutral zone and cashing in on their transition game. However, that does open your team to counter-attacks offensively, often leading to high-danger chances against your goaltenders.

It’s possible that to compensate for inconsistent goaltending, Kris Knoblauch has changed his systems to limit the Oilers chances of being caught on the rush. If you’re funneling shots through the point, the opposing team will be harder pressed to break your cycle quickly and push the puck up ice in behind your defencemen.

To be fair, this likely is not the answer. Limiting such a offensive team like the Oilers to such boring 5v5 play because you’re afraid any decent chance the other way will go in is cutting off your nose to spite your face. If you truly believe your goalies can’t hang, go talk to the GM about it. However, it’s telling to see the Oilers revert to heavily to a chance-limiting system. They’re just not built to win hockey games this way though. Making the Oilers play like this is putting a parking boot on a Ferrari.

They’re still getting used to each other

This is the more hopeful answer. The Oilers did lose some players in the offseason that thrived around the net. Evander Kane, Connor Brown, and Corey Perry all had the ability to play around the net, and often played their best hockey close to the crease. Those players were likely correctly replaced, but it takes time for new players to acclimate to new systems.

The good news is that there are bright spots in the 5v5 offence. Jack Roslovic LOVES to shoot and he’s made that clear so far; Matt Savoie and David Tomasek have both seemingly become more comfortable around the net, at 5v5 and on the power play, and Zach Hyman’s return gives Edmonton their best net-front presence back.

The two recent games against Tampa and Florida have looked more like the Oilers we know over the last two years. It’s possible the team needed a longer run-up this season, but if the point-shot stuff is being coached to them, it needs to stop. Edmonton is an offence-first team, and not building your systems around that is simply foolish. Here’s hoping the recent showings were a sign of things to come, and the offence is able to stabilize.