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The Habs Hosting The Sabres In Big Divisional Game
Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

For the 2nd time in the last week, the Montreal Canadiens (28-15-7) will be taking on the Buffalo Sabres (27-17-5), but this time they will be on home ice. The Canadiens will look to use the Bell Centre ice to their advantage to get revenge for last Thursday’s 5-3 loss on the road against the Sabres. With a win in regulation tonight, the Canadiens have the potential to widen their cushion on the Sabres to 6 points, but with a loss in regulation, they will only be 2 points ahead, with the Sabres having a game in hand. Therefore, tonight’s game will be a very important matchup for either team to win.

After last week’s 5-point performance by Tage Thompson, the Habs will need to have a plan to stop the big power forward who completely dominated the ice in their last meeting. However, given his size, speed, and skill, that task may be easier said than done, as nobody was able to challenge him all game last Thursday. It will be interesting to see what the game plan for Thompson and his linemates will be tonight.

The Canadiens announced this morning that the only lineup change for tonight’s game will be that Samuel Montembeault will get the start over Jakub Dobes. Meanwhile, the skaters in the lineup will stay the same as they were during Tuesday’s 4-3 victory over the Minnesota Wild. Montembeault is coming off a tough outing against the Ottawa Senators, where he and the Habs did just enough to steal 2 points in a 6-5 win on Saturday. Despite giving up 5 goals, Montembeault has historically struggled against the Sens, and it was not a sign of him reverting back to the goaltender who had a terrible first half of the season.

Nonetheless, hopefully Montembeault can bounce back from that performance and deliver a big game in what seems like a must-win situation tonight. The Habs netminder has a 5-1 record in his last 6 games facing the Sabres with a .944 save percentage and 1.71 GAA. Can he continue his success against the red-hot Sabres tonight?

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be getting the start for the Sabres in what is a very important game for them after going 16-3-1 in their last 20 games. Luukkonen himself is actually on a 2-game losing streak after having won 6 of his previous 7 matchups before that. Over his last 10 games, Luukkonen has a 6-3-1 record with a .908 save percentage and a 2.80 GAA. He has been solid in goal but definitely not unbeatable, as the team’s success seems to be more related to their offence. Throughout his career, he has a 1-2 record against the Habs with a rough .847 save percentage and a 4.54 GAA.

Given recent games between these two teams and the overall statistics of both goaltenders, betting the over 6.5 goals seems like a good wager for tonight. Heading into tonight on a 2-game winning streak, the Habs are listed as a -125 home favourite on the money line.

Cole Caufield has been on a hot streak lately, scoring 4 goals in his last 3 matchups. He will look to extend his goal streak to 4 games tonight. Caufield’s odds to score tonight have been set to +140. Combine Caufield scoring a goal with a Habs win and the over 6.5 goals to boost your odds to +450 with a Same Game Parlay.

It won’t be an easy game, but the Canadiens’ recent success on home ice since coming back from the holiday trip has been a great advantage, as they’ve won 4 of 5 matchups at the Bell Centre in 2026. This might be something that could allow the Habs to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Sabres.

What are your predictions for tonight’s massive matchup between the Sabres and Habs?

This article first appeared on The Sick Podcast and was syndicated with permission.

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