The Oilers’ depth has stepped up recently

In the eight games since then, the Oilers have outscored their opponents 7-4 without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, and their underlying metrics look much more palatable.

One of the simplest ways to measure whether a player is having success in their role is by their ability to score, outscore, and outchance. After a disastrous start to the season, Trent Frederic is starting to at least do the latter two.

Through 21 games, he had just one point with an abysmal 42.6 expected goal share. He still only has two points in his last eight games, but he’s finally outscoring and outchancing opponents, a necessary first step toward being the player Edmonton needs him to be. If he can rediscover his finishing touch and increase production, there’s plenty of hope for him this season.

A Frederic resurgence would be huge, considering the long-term commitment the Oilers made to him. Connor Clattenburg, on the other hand, is a short-term solution to replace the injured forwards. I was a bit surprised when the Oilers recalled him from Bakersfield back on Nov. 21, given his lack of pro experience and offensive acumen, but I’ll give the kid a ton of credit; he’s playing his role well.

He’s fought, hit, and injected energy; exactly what Edmonton hoped for. What’s surprised me is that he hasn’t been a liability. He’s actually out-chancing and outscoring opponents in limited minutes, something few expected. It may be a small sample, but if this ends up being a brief cup of coffee for Clattenburg in the NHL, it’s a darn good one.

While Clattenburg brings energy, Adam Henrique’s role is to be a calming defensive presence. His goal shares have drastically improved since the first month of the season, thanks in large part to much better goal suppression. 

Henrique’s play-driving has been suspect over the past few seasons, but while he has failed to control play, he has managed to outperform the expected metrics for three straight seasons, especially in terms of goals-against. Simply put, goals against are typically low in Henrique’s minutes, despite mediocre underlying numbers. 

This season, Henrique is driving play better than usual, but the luck hasn’t broken his way. His on-ice shooting percentage sits at just 5.8%, while the SV%, which is typically strong in his minutes, sits at just .881 on the season.

Things are starting to regress in a good way for Henrique recently, and if he can keep the goals against lower than expected, as he has in the past, he should continue to see results improve from his cold first 20 games.

David Tomášek shares Henrique’s experience in pro hockey, but the NHL is a new challenge for him. He has been in and out of the lineup all season, and his results are progressing despite the inconsistent opportunities.

In his first 14 games, he was outscored 7-2, with a 41% expected goal share, but in his last five games, he’s outscored the opposition 4-2 with a 58% expected goal share. It’s not easy to go from a scoring champion in Sweden to a bottom-six forward in North America. After a shaky start to his NHL career, Tomasek appears to be adjusting.

Mattias Janmark and Curtis Lazar round out the bottom-six group as pure defensive veterans. Neither one will hit the scoresheet with any regularity, but both are controlling play and keeping the goals against low right now, which is something that none of the depth forwards were doing early on.

Are the Oilers back?

The Oilers had considerable turnover this summer, with a completely refreshed supporting cast to work with. It has taken time for players to settle in, but the early-season rust is beginning to disappear. The line blender has been put to rest, and chemistry is building.

Breakouts look more connected, the defence is moving the puck up ice quickly in transition, and the team is getting back to generating shots from the inner slot rather than deferring to point shots. The best part is that progress is happening for every line, not just the top players.

The Oilers are finally starting to win their minutes without McDavid and Draisaitl, which was one of the keys to their latest Cup run last spring. If the bottom six can continue their recent results, it raises Edmonton’s ceiling back into contender territory.  

All Data via Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise