The Red Wings Simply Aren’t Good Enough

It’s been a while since I’ve written a piece. Actually, this is the longest I’ve gone without making a new write-up ever, even going back to my Reddit posting days. Simply put, it’s been exhausting to talk or think about the Red Wings lately.

It’s been a decade since Detroit has made the postseason, a trend that is likely to continue after getting sucker-punched by an exhausted and wounded Senators team. Seeing as it is the centennial season, that would mean this rebuild has accounted for one-tenth of the Red Wings history as a franchise. A rebuild that looks like this isn’t normal, and it’s not going to get any better. I’m going to do my best to outline why Detroit is closer to another rebuild than they are to competing for a Stanley Cup.

If you find yourself liking the tone of this and want to hear more, the episode that went up for Kicking Tires yesterday was a lot of the same criticisms just in longer form. If that interests you, check it out below.

https://feeds.simplecast.com/oKqHSPk7

Detroit’s Core isn’t Good Enough

Larkin, Raymond, DeBrincat, and Seider are all great players. I do think DeBrincat and Seider are all-NHL level talents at their positions. I think for flashes, Raymond and Larkin can be too. But they aren’t nearly as good as some of the cores that they are directly competing with.

Starting with Montreal feels unfair because they have one of the best cores in the NHL right now. Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, and Demidov look like four true superstars. Suzuki looks like the favourite for the Selke right now, Caufield is in the Rocket race, Hutson is near the Norris, and Demidov should finish near the top of the Calder ballot. Other than a debate about Seider versus Hutson, Montreal’s core is better than each member of the Red Wings’ core, and they are divisional rivals with Detroit.

But it goes beyond them. Tampa Bay are likely to continue running things with their incredible star power. The Panthers, when healthy, are still elite. Buffalo’s core of Thompson, Dahlin, and Tuch has shown they can dominate even with just average supporting pieces. Boston with Pastrnak, McAvoy, and Swayman is arguably still one of the best trios in the NHL.

There is also an argument for the Devils, Senators, and Blue Jackets’ core players to outrank Detroit’s when healthy.

This is why I had the stance I did when Detroit missed out on Quinn Hughes. While Edvinsson, Kasper, and Danielson are all fine players, Detroit doesn’t have the top-end talent to keep up with other teams. The reason Detroit falls in big games is because their best players are outclassed.

Look at the last two games. Swayman showed up huge for Boston while Pastrnak put points on the board. Tonight, Stutzle and Tkachuk had big games while Ullmark held his own in net for the Senators.

While I think Kasper, Danielson, Finnie, and Edvinsson are great supplementary pieces, Detroit doesn’t have the level of talent yet where those kinds of players are going to push them forward. It starts with an elite core and working out from there.

The Prospects aren’t Game-Breakers

It’s hard to sugarcoat this: Detroit’s prospects simply aren’t special. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve pumped the tires of any Red Wings rookie to set foot in the uniform recently, and I’ve been shown that I’ve been pretty far off on each of them.

While Marco Kasper had a great end to last season, he’s spent most of this one aside from a stint with Larkin and Raymond as a bottom-six center who failed to do much of anything. Simon Edvinsson looks steady on the backend, but his offensive game hasn’t improved much, and he’s played more minutes on a team that improved offensively this season.

As for the rookies, Nate Danielson hasn’t recorded a goal that came off his stick yet. He recorded 7 points in 28 games as a 21-year-old former top 10 pick who was averaging more than 1:30 of power play time a game. Danielson only had one game of his 28 games played that saw him factor in as a positive in the +/- category.

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard has just been sent down for the second time, and it’s not hard to see why. While he was recording hits and showed some good effort, he couldn’t produce, mustering only one secondary assist in 12 games played. Again, for a former lottery pick to produce nothing functionally on the scoreboard in 12 games played as a player drafted with his shot as a key trait isn’t promising.

Finally, Axel Sandin-Pellikka. He was supposed to be one of the key pieces of the Red Wings rebuild. He was so highly touted that I had seen people having him ranked as a top 10 prospect in hockey last summer. Sandin-Pellikka was given plenty of chances to find his game. He played the top four minutes for a ton of the season and couldn’t handle them. He was put in the bottom pair minutes and still wasn’t effective.

In both power play one and two roles, he seldom produced and more often than not had his plays result in a turnover. His 19 points in 63 games aren’t awful. But his -21 rating as the most sheltered player on the team is telling that he may not be the kind of talent we thought he was.

It’s rare that rookies who are so underwhelming in their rookie season turn out to be franchise cornerstones. Not to say there haven’t been examples, look at Jack Hughes. I’m just saying it’s not like players need to suffer growing pains.

Obviously, Schaefer and Demidov look great off the hop because they’re such generational talents. But Ben Kindel, Oliver Kapanen, Ryan Leonard, Fraser Minten, Alexander Nikishin, and Jimmy Snuggerud have all been in situations similar to or worse than those of the Red Wings rookies this season and have outclassed them.

I leave credit for Emmitt Finnie, who has been great. I think Finnie is promising as a solid middle-six guy who can step up in the right moments, but he’s far from a game breaker. He shouldn’t have to be one, though; that’s for the guys who were lottery picks, and it simply hasn’t panned out for them.

No Way Forward

Again, no game-breaking prospects coming, a core that isn’t good enough to compete, and a city that isn’t a free agent destination. They can’t attract players to come here, and the one superstar who may have wanted to come to Detroit, Quinn Hughes, was stiff-armed by management.

Now, without their first round draft pick being protected, Detroit is on the outside of the playoffs looking in. It’s not just one more year to burn. DeBrincat and Faulk are down to one year left, and both are going to want huge extensions if they’re going to tolerate the losing this team has done. Raymond and Seider are another year older with another year burnt off their great deals. Larkin is one year older, and his prime years are already seemingly beginning to fade.

I’ve been optimistic about this team. Overly optimistic about this team, the evidence is there. But this season seems to encapsulate how I feel about the Red Wings as a whole: even when things are good, they’re not good enough.

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