The significance of Chris Tanev ‘missing significant time’ for Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are 6-3-2 with Chris Tanev in their lineup. They’ve gone 2-0-2 since his most recent return to the lineup. In contrast the Maple Leafs are 13-12-5 without him. It seems safe to say that on a team that is very much on the playoff bubble would benefit from having their top defensive defenceman in their lineup for their busiest, make-or-break stretch. At the same time the Leafs are a team on the bubble and while Craig Berube has already acknowledged that Tanev will miss a significant amount of time, it is important to make sure the Leafs are doing right by Tanev and giving him the opportunity to re-enter the lineup as close to 100 percent as possible and prolong his career to the benefit of the Leafs as much as possible.

Instinctively there is a comparison between Tanev and Jake Muzzin that occurs, based largely in the role that they play on the Leafs and the realities of age and injuries catching up with them. Tanev is older than Muzzin was and raises more concerns that way, in fact Muzzin is just a few months older than Tanev. On the other hand, Muzzin wasn’t dealing with a groin injury, he was dealing with a spinal injury. While there isn’t a need to plan for Tanev riding out his contract on the long-term injury reserve for the Maple Leafs, his age and style of play should raise some level of caution about recovery time and preparing for him to take a less prominent role in the Leafs lineup going forward.

In the short term, the Leafs are hooped defensively. The better season out of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the strong showing from Troy Stecher, and Jake McCabe’s willingness to do everything possible soften the blow of having Tanev out of the lineup. Morgan Rielly has also looked better this season but from the offensive side of the puck, and while the Leafs have four defencemen they should be pleased with individually, the combination of their play doesn’t offset how much the Leafs defence suffers without Tanev.

The immediate hope, and it is largely just hope at this point, comes with Brandon Carlo’s imminent return the Maple Leafs lineup. He’s skating, he’s practicing, but no set date for his return exists and given that his entire time as a Leaf up until now has been at best mediocre and at worst a disaster, seeing Carlo as a replacement for Tanev is unlikely, but nor is it wise for the Maple Leafs to attempt to replace Tanev in season as the club is not in a position to be buyers.

The committee approach the Leafs defence will require the team to look for hot hands to help. Matt Benning finally getting a look with the Leafs is an opportunity to try something new. Marshall Rifai’s recovery could make him an option as well, and Henry Thrun, Dakota Mermis, and William Villeneuve are also options to replace the current lineup card incumbents, Simon Benoit and Philippe Myers.

The Leafs also may need to reinvent their blueline in the absence of Tanev, making backend puck movement the priority over the battling style that suits the club best when Tanev is leading the charge. Tanev has been the Leafs’ defensive leader in CA/60 and GA/60 at 5v5, pretty much every replacement option involves a need for sheltering and still a significant drop in results. Exploring offensive upside might be the better option at this point than applying wishful thinking to the defensive side of the puck.

The combination of age and injury should serve as a wakeup call for the Maple Leafs as they plan beyond this season. The plan should still be to get Tanev healthy and to stay a Leaf, but the Leafs’ older blueline isn’t going to encounter this problem only with Tanev. The team needs to find a way to get younger and while Ben Danford is making a strong case for being part of the solution based on his play at the World Juniors so far, the Leafs also need to once again look at top pairing capable defencemen in the NHL and in a perfect world find one that is still in their 20s and can give them a longer run of hockey.

There’s no way to find silver lining in Chris Tanev missing significant time for the Maple Leafs but the are smart ways to mitigate future risk and to come up with a strategy for his absence that optimizes what the Leafs have to work with. And while January seems like a tougher month, hopefully “significant time” doesn’t stretch past the Olympic break.