The Toronto Maple Leafs are entering a new era

The biggest question going into the offseason was how the Toronto Maple Leafs would adapt after yet another disappointing playoffs. Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and RFA Matthew Knies all needed new contracts, in addition to being able to fill in the usual holes of the lineup.

After a decade of failures and stubbornness to move off the “Core Four,” superstar Mitch Marner signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in a sign-and-trade, thereby ending an era. But the question remains: how do the Maple Leafs pivot?

Team-friendly contracts? In this economy?

John Tavares

One could argue that signing John Tavares to the massive seven-year, $11M AAV in 2018 is what paved the way for William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Auston Matthews to receive such rich post-ELC deals. After all, no other superstars in the NHL coming off of their ELC have received anything close to what the three superstars in Toronto received.

However, Tavares signed a four-year, $4.388M AAV deal to remain with the Maple Leafs, shocking everyone. Tavares, 34, would’ve most certainly received more on the open market, and we can look at none other than Matt Duchene. Duchene is also 34 and signed a four-year, $4.5M AAV extension with the Dallas Stars. He is also receiving $1.55M for the next three years due to the buyout by the Nashville Predators. Brock Nelson is another comparable, who recently signed a three-year x $7.5M extension with the Colorado Avalanche.

It’s no stretch of the imagination that Tavares could have easily commanded $7M-8M on the open market. He is showing no signs of slowing down either, finishing with 38 goals, 36 assists for 74 points in 75 games last season. Compared to Nelson, who finished with 26 goals and 30 assists for 56 points in 80 games. For reference, Nelson has a career high of 37 goals.

Tavares clearly wants to play and win in Toronto, despite there being a “Toronto media problem”. Furthermore, let’s not forget that Tavares turned down the San Jose Sharks’ offer to pay him an AAV of $13M in 2018. The former Maple Leafs captain is still showing why he’s a leader.

Matthew Knies

Matthew Knies had a breakout year last year, scoring 29 goals with 29 assists for 58 points in 78 games in his final year of his ELC. Each season, Knies has developed closer into a top-tier player. In February, we were saying that a deal in the four-six year x $4.5-6.5M range would have been fair for both sides.

However, this was before his strong finish to the end of the year and his excellent playoff performance, scoring five goals and two assists for seven points in 13 games. Last year’s performance earned Knies a six-year x $7.75M extension with the Maple Leafs this offseason. I still think this deal works out well for both parties. The salary cap is projected to go up to $113.5M in the 2027–28 season. The AAV will be a steal for what Knies brings in a few years.

However, even if the cap remained flat, I still think this is a good deal for the Maple Leafs. Knies is the only player on the team who brings a combination of scoring ability, net front presence, and physicality. Knies has a blue-collar work ethic that fans love, and I argue that most fans wish everyone on the team played like he does. 

Furthermore, although not guaranteed, Knies is not done developing. At 22 years old, Knies still has some developing to do. If he continues on his development path, he’s going to be a force for the Maple Leafs for a long time.

Before Knies signed his extension, he was asked questions by the media about possible offer sheets. He responded with, “I want to be here. I want to play here. That’s all that matters to me.” Even Treliving said at the end of May that he “see[s] him as a long-term player… He is a hell of a player.”

Clearly, Treliving thinks Knies is a big part of the future of the franchise, and if Matthews does not re-sign, which I think is unlikely, Knies could very well be the next captain.

Out with the old

With Brendan Shanahan not being renewed as President, Treliving has been given a larger role, according to CEO Keith Pelley. As fans, we were upset at former general manager Kyle Dubas for not moving off the “Core Four” sooner. 

However, from firing Dubas after the latter hinted at moving off of the Core Four in 2023, to allegedly calling the superstars after the fact, saying that they’re not being moved, to not moving off Mitch Marner before his NTC kicked in or trading William Nylander, we can be confident that Shanahan was the mastermind.

Either way, the Core Four era is finally dead. Tavares at such a low cap hit is just a “regular” player now. He is no longer expected to produce to his $11M AAV salary. Mitch Marner is no longer a member of the Maple Leafs. Knies will be a part of the core players going forward with his new extension. With these changes alone, the team will look very different next year. Notably, all eyes will be on Auston Matthews to perform as one of the league’s highest-paid players.

There is no question that the Maple Leafs looked more playoff-ready under Craig Berube than they did in any season under Sheldon Keefe or Mike Babcock. Another off-season to further adapt to Berube’s system will do several players on the team wonders. I’d fully expect a better season for Morgan Rielly and Matthews.

On to a better future

We are already seeing Treliving’s vision for the team. Treliving revamped the defence last season to what was probably the best we have seen in literal decades. The defence corps was bigger and meaner and could play solid shutdown defence. 

Tavares’ new contract, while having a full NMC in the first two years, has a five-team no-trade list in the final two years. Knies’ new contract has no trade protection at all. Not to mention that both contracts are team-friendly deals. Treliving has made it clear that players will no longer be paid above their worth, and before doing any serious damage in the playoffs. 

With the acquisitions of Matias Maccelli and, more recently, Dakota Joshua, Treliving is taking bets on low-cost, high-reward options. With what few assets the Maple Leafs have left, these are good gambles. Even obtaining a serviceable asset in Nicolas Roy in exchange for signing Mitch Marner to a $12M x eight-year contract is something we haven’t seen the Maple Leafs do very often.

I would expect either David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, or both to be moved, given the moves so far, and that they don’t fit Treliving’s mould. The Maple Leafs need a bottom-six who are not only physical, but can also put the puck in the net. With the logjam of players in the bottom-six, one or two of these players need to be moved.

The Maple Leafs have just under $3M of cap space for the first time in a decade. Gone are the days of cap shenanigans and bargain bin shopping. Fans should be excited. For the first time in a long time, there are winds of a new beginning.