The Toronto Maple Leafs must prioritize re-signing Mitch Marner

The Toronto Maple Leafs and star forward Mitch Marner appear to be set to part ways. After a decade-long partnership, divorce is impending. Marner wants big money, and General Manager Brad Treliving won’t want to pay it after another disappointing playoff exit. However, letting Marner walk away as a free agent would be a colossal mistake.

I understand tensions are high in Toronto, and fans are sick of watching this team fall flat in the playoffs. This shouldn’t be what we’re discussing today. The Leafs have had years to get the growing pains out of the way. This should be the time when we’re discussing how the Leafs dismantled their first and second-round opponents. We should be talking about how they’re right in the thick of the Conference Final, with an eye toward the Stanley Cup. But that’s not the case.

At this time, cooler heads must prevail, and smart decisions must be made. Letting Marner walk is not a smart decision. Don’t get me wrong, this latest playoff loss is unacceptable, but the Leafs must prioritize signing Mitch Marner before July 1.

Marner’s legacy in blue and white

The Leafs drafted Marner fourth overall nearly a decade ago at the 2015 NHL Draft. Since then, he’s become a superstar in Toronto. After a 61-point rookie season in 2016–17 as a 19-year-old, Marner was named to the NHL’s All-Rookie Team. He finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting as the league’s top rookie, a trophy that longtime linemate Auston Matthews claimed.

From there, it was all uphill for Marner. He continued improving his career bests in goals and points over the next two years, posting 26 goals and 94 points in 2018–19. Then the pandemic years hit, and the next two seasons were shortened. Marner still put up 67 points in 59-game and 55-game seasons. He set new career highs with 35 goals and 97 points when the NHL returned to its full-length schedule.

This brings us to the 2022–23 season, when Marner set yet another career-high in points with 99. Last season, he scored 26 goals and 85 points in 69 games. This year? A new career-high in points with 102, finally hitting the century mark after flirting with it a few times. All in, he has scored 221 goals and 741 points in 657 games as a Maple Leaf. He’s fourth all-time in assists, fifth all-time in points, and 14th all-time in goals. Very impressive, considering the team celebrated its centennial anniversary nearly a decade ago.

His accolades include two first All-Star Team wins, six straight years of being nominated for the Lady Byng and Selke trophies, and twice for the Hart Trophy. He’s one hell of a hockey player.

Superstars don’t grow on trees

The NHL is unique in that it’s not often superstar players change teams in their prime. When it happens, it’s big news. Superstars of the 2000s like Mats Sundin, Daniel Alfredsson, Mike Modano, Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Jarome Iginla played most of their careers for one team before moving on closer to the end.

That’s why it’s big news when players change teams in their prime. It was headline news in the summer of 2016 when the Montreal Canadiens and Nashville Predators swapped PK Subban and Shea Weber, and the Edmonton Oilers dealt Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson. And in 2022, when Johnny Gaudreau left the Calgary Flames as a free agent, Matthew Tkachuk forced their hand into shipping him off to the Florida Panthers for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar.

There are others—like Mikko Rantanen being traded twice this season—but it’s a rare occurrence. Mitch Marner is primed to be the next man on this list. He’s a superstar, having averaged 92 points per 82 games through his nine-year NHL career. That’s difficult to replace, and I think that’s something Leafs fans are not considering right now. Marner’s leaving immediately makes the team worse and opens up a big hole in the lineup. It took the Oilers years to replace Hall. The Flames still have not replaced Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

That said, Marner’s playoff record isn’t as good as his regular season. He’s below a point per game in the postseason, with 53 in 70 games. This season, though, he had 13 in 13. However, he only had five against the Panthers in the second round, and only three across the Leafs’ six losses this postseason. The trend is clear: he hasn’t shown up in big moments.

Letting Marner walk is bad asset management

The best teams in the NHL aren’t afraid to cut ties with players. Look at the Vegas Golden Knights: they haven’t shied away from big moves. They’ve reworked their roster and made trades to add names like Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Jack Eichel, and Tomas Hertl. Or the Florida Panthers, who didn’t hesitate to deal Huberdeau and Weegar at their peak to bring in Tkachuk. These teams won Stanley Cups because they managed their assets perfectly.

Letting Marner walk for nothing is horrible asset management, and it’s not the first time Treliving has done this. He was steering the Flames when they let Gaudreau leave as a free agent after a career-high 115-point season. As I said, the Flames still haven’t righted that ship. Is Treliving about to let another 100-point player walk away for nothing?

I can understand the organization and fans wanting to move on from Marner, especially if he’s looking for the rumoured $14M AAV. But letting him walk away for nothing is not the answer. It may feel like the right move in this moment, but the hole to fill will be too big.

What should the Leafs do?

Treliving must prioritize getting Marner under contract. This is the single most important thing on his to-do list this summer. I have no doubt Marner will get $13M or $14M on the open market or succeed with a new team. Treliving and the Leafs need to take that option off the table.

Pay the man, but keep some control early on. Give him that eight-year ticket, but don’t give him a no-trade or no-movement clause until at least year three. This gives the Leafs the opportunity to try to make it work with Marner, while also keeping the window open to move him if that’s still their desire. At least they’d get assets back in this scenario.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending Marner in any way. I fully believe he has not lived up to expectations in the postseason and has not earned a big ticket. But he’ll get it regardless, and it should be the Leafs to get it. You can’t lose 100-point players for nothing, full stop. I’m only suggesting the Leafs make smart asset-management decisions in spite of another disappointing finish.