This hasn’t been the start the Edmonton Oilers wanted

Edmonton ranks first in 22+mph bursts, they are third in 20-22 mph bursts and second in 18-20 mph bursts. Speed isn’t an issue, but that speed hasn’t translated into wins or goals. Edmonton ranks 21st in GF/GP at 2.90, and they are 28th in 5-on-5 goals/GP at 1.6. Only the Rangers, Panthers, Flames and Wild have scored fewer goals 5-on-5. Connor McDavid has zero 5-on-5 goals and only one goal through 10 games. Of course, he will score more than eight goals this season, but his lack of goals and shots is a main reason Edmonton’s offence is sluggish.

What’s odd about McDavid’s lack of scoring is that he’s skated much better this year than he did last season. McDavid already has the NHL’s top speed this year at 24.61 mph. Only two skaters, Logan Cooley (23.97) and Cale Makar (23.68), are within one mph of McDavid. He’s been flying this year, but it hasn’t led to goals.

He has 18 bursts of 22+ mph, and the next closest skater is at 10. He has the most 20-22 mph skates with 58, and he’s second in 18-20 mph bursts with 123, trailing only Martin Necas (127).

Here’s a comparison of those bursts (per game) from last year to this season.

YEAR              22+     20-22      18-20
2024/25           1.23        5.35           11.11
2025/26           1.80        5.80          12.3

His max speed last season was 23.97. He’s skating better, which is difficult to do, but as of yet, the quicker bursts haven’t led to goals. Part of that is due to a lack of shots. McDavid is averaging 2.8 shots/game, which is his lowest total since his rookie season. Last year, he only fired 2.92 shots/game.

In 2023, when he scored 64 goals, he averaged 4.29 shots/GP (his career high), and the only season he averaged over four shots/GP. It is unlikely he will do that again, and being a high-volume shooter doesn’t come naturally to him. He’s always had a pass-first mentality, and even the best player in the NHL can lack confidence in certain areas of his game. Right now, he’s likely lacking some confidence in his ability to finish.

In the other three seasons where he scored 40+ goals, his shots/GP varied…

• In 2022, he scored 44 goals on 314 shots in 80 games for 3.93 shots/GP.
• In 2018, he tallied 41 goals on 274 shots in 82 games for 3.34 shots/GP.
• In 2019, he had 41 goals on 240 shots in 78 games for 3.07 shots/GP.

Each season is different and presents different challenges and luck. Through 10 games, McDavid is flying, but so far, it hasn’t led to many shots and only one goal. The latter will change, likely when he starts shooting more.

But McDavid isn’t the only reason the Oilers’ offence is 21st. They desperately miss Zach Hyman’s net-front skill and presence. The Oilers aren’t generating enough rebound chances, mainly due to them not having guys around the blue paint regularly.

In the past three games, the Oilers have scored 11 goals, and seven have come 5-on-5 after scoring only nine 5-on-5 goals in the first seven games. They’ve shown signs of life at 5-on-5 the past few games, but it needs to continue. They have the speed and skill to score more.

SPECIAL TEAMS…

The Oilers’ power play ranks fourth in the league at 31 percent. It continues to be a weapon. The one area they’d like to improve is drawing more penalties. They are 25th in the NHL in PP chances/game at 2.90.

The penalty kill ranks 14th at 80.8 percent. Considering the disastrous start it had last year, this is a major improvement. The Oilers have been penalized the fourth fewest times in the NHL, being shorthanded only 26 times in 10 games. They’ve allowed one PP goal in five of their 10 games and have yet to allow two in a game. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have killed 13:58 and 13:48, respectively, which rank second and third among Oilers forwards. Neither has been on the ice for a goal against.

GOALTENDING…

There have been 32 goalies to make at least five starts so far this season. Stuart Skinner is tied with Sergei Bobrovsky for 16th in save percentage at .903, and Skinner ranks ninth in GAA at 2.31. Skinner is just around 0 on expected via Clear Sight Analytics, which puts him 16th among goalies who have made five starts. He has stolen one win for the Oilers vs. the Rangers, and he’s been above average so far this season. He didn’t look great on the odd-man rush in Seattle. He was too aggressive and well past the top of his crease. Being less aggressive could help him.

Calvin Pickard has made four starts, and he has an .846 save percentage and 3.50 GAA, and he’s a -2.9 in goals saved above expected. However, last year, Pickard had one of the best expected save percentages in the NHL, meaning the Oilers were playing pretty well defensively, but this year he’s expected save percentage is around .880. He is facing much better chances early this year than he did last season.

DEFENCE…

It is never great when the three D-men who play the most have all been outscored 5-on-5. Darnell Nurse is at minus-one (4-5), Evan Bouchard is minus-six (3-9), and Mattias Ekholm is minus-seven (5-12). They split up the Bouchard-Ekholm pairing in Vancouver on Sunday, and Nurse-Bouchard finished 1-0, while the Ekholm/Jake Walman pair was even at 1-1. I’d view that as progress. All three can play better, but specifically Bouchard and Ekholm, as they’ve been on for too many goals against.

The return of Walman makes them better, and I’d be surprised if the next 10 games aren’t better, offensively and defensively, for the D corps.

The Oilers did not have the start they wanted, but they haven’t dug too deep a hole. They played seven of their first 10 games on the road; however, they do face the hottest team in the Western Conference, Utah, tomorrow night, so they will need to be ready, or they could get embarrassed to start their next 10-game stretch. They have given up more high-quality chances so far this season, which matches what we’ve seen in games.

Edmonton ranks 18th in high-danger chances against 5-on-5. They were top-10 last year, so they have room to improve.

Edmonton plays five of its next 10 at home, where the Oilers are 2-0-1. So, a bit more time at home, combined with the return of Zach Hyman at some point (earliest potential return is Saturday vs. Chicago) and the expectation that McDavid will score more than one goal and the supporting cast will produce a bit more 5-on-5, should result in a better record in the next 10 games compared to the first 10. If they don’t, then the alarm bells will ring, but I’m not prepared to press the panic button yet after another sluggish first 10 games.

Their offence is the main culprit, though. They are in the bottom five and bottom ten in both high-danger chances for and chances off the rush. Usually, the Oilers are top five and top 10 in those areas.

Starting slow, unfortunately, has become this team’s calling card for the past three seasons.