The Dallas Stars knew they had a future cornerstone when they drafted Thomas Harley, but few expected the 23-year-old to be ranked alongside names like Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin, and Victor Hedman this early in his career.
His growth has been rapid, and it's changing the way the Stars view their blue line moving forward.
Harley quietly posted 50 points last season, building on the strong foundation he set as a rookie. That output placed him 15th among NHL defensemen, ahead of players like Jakob Chychrun, while also ranking inside the top 25 in expected goal share.
For a player still only two seasons into a full-time role, those numbers show a defender ready to step into stardom.
Even more impressive is how Harley held up during difficult moments. When Miro Heiskanen missed time, Harley was forced to carry more minutes and responsibilities.
While the Stars stumbled late in the regular season, it provided a glimpse of just how valuable Harley already is.
Analysts have started to take notice. According to Dom Luszczyszyn's model cited by D Magazine, Harley's impact last season placed him in a cohort with Norris Trophy winners and perennial all-stars. That's not a projection years down the road-it's based on what he's already delivering.
"The eye test shows Harley's poise and puck movement, but the underlying data is what puts him into that rare category of defensemen who directly add wins," one analyst explained in the piece.
The advanced stats go beyond points. Harley's expected standings points above replacement (xSPAR) takes into account his even-strength play, special teams impact, and penalty differential.
By that measure, Harley is tracking ahead of where many of today's top defensemen were at his age.
"It's not just about production, it's the total package, offense, defense, and discipline, that makes Harley so valuable already," another source added.
With his next contract looming, the question now is how much Dallas is willing to invest.
If Harley continues at this pace, he won't just be seen as Miro Heiskanen's partner, he'll be regarded as one of the NHL's premier defensemen in his own right.
I think the Stars' future success may rest heavily on Harley's shoulders, because everything points to him being far more than just "good."
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