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Montreal Canadiens Kirby Dach (David Kirouac-Imagn Images)

Top 5 Canadiens X-Factors for 2025-26

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Ryan Szporer | Last updated Aug 31, 2025 8:25 AM ET

Arguably the biggest X-factor separating the Montreal Canadiens from a successful playoff finish to 2025-26 is their health. As has been well-documented, all alone the Habs have evolved substantially into officially a playoff team already, improving every season since finishing last in the standings in 2021-22.

After finishing first in man-games lost that last-place season and in 2022-23, things started to improve on the injury front in 2023-24. And, last season, with the sixth-fewest games missed to injury, they of course surprised most analysts by reaching the postseason for the first time since losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.

As the youngest-projected team in the NHL, it’s only logical that they continue improving as each member of their core moves a year closer to their prime, assuming they stay healthy. However, what if you were to limit the term X-factor to people (players) only, i.e., as the term is traditionally used? Which Canadiens are the biggest X-factors, or relative unknowns with the capacity to hold the biggest sway over their fate? Here are the top five:

5. Zachary Bolduc

Just by virtue of the fact Zachary Bolduc is new to the team, with the Canadiens having acquired him for Logan Mailloux from the St. Louis Blues, his ceiling, at least as it pertains to where he plays in the lineup, is a huge question mark. For example, with the Blues, Bolduc impressively scored 19 goals as a rookie with just 12:48 per game of ice time (1:18 on the power play).

For context, that would place him just above Emil Heineman (11:23; 1:01 on the power play), the fourth-line winger some suggest Bolduc is intended to replace, after he got traded to the New York Islanders in as part of a deal for defenseman Noah Dobson days earlier. However, his 36 points would rank fifth among Canadiens forwards last year, albeit right alongside fourth-line centre Jake Evans, as the team’s second line (effectively in name only), which consisted of Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach, failed to generate much in the way of chemistry or actual offense.

Could Bolduc be part of the solution there instead? Who knows at this point? Bolduc’s physical style suggests he can fit in up and down the lineup. If it’s on Line 2, helping to give the Canadiens two working top-six units, the Habs could conceivably overwhelm opposing defenses on the regular, an incredible proposition considering their top line of Nick Suzuki between Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky technically already does.

4. Noah Dobson

Unlike with Bolduc, Canadiens fans should have a pretty good idea of where Dobson will play. As a defenseman who led the Islanders in ice time the last two seasons, the top pairing is a fairly safe assumption. However, with his production having varied kind of wildly between the two aforementioned seasons (a career-high 70 in 2023-24 to 39 in 2024-25), it’s hard to assess how much offense he’ll contribute to the playoff cause.

Thankfully, it will probably still be a significant amount. After all, he has scored 10 goals or more in each of the last four season. Plus, with Mike Matheson and Lane Hutson having surpassed the 60-point mark in consecutive seasons leading into 2025-26, things are at least shaping up for Dobson to flirt with the same total, at the absolute very least.

As the Canadiens traded two first-round picks (and Heineman) to acquire Dobson, then signing him to a new deal with a team-high $9.5 million cap hit (excluding Carey Price), the Habs are probably hoping for similar. You don’t really dole out that amount of cheddar for just any player, even if he is a top-pairing, 25-year-old, right-shot defenseman. You dole out that amount of cash for the above, as long as that shot gets the puck to go in the net consistently.

3. Kirby Dach

As things stand now, Kirby Dach is projected to fill the second-line centre spot for the second season in a row, technically the third. He played the first two games of 2022-23 there before sustaining a season-ending knee injury. He unfortunately struggled to produce in 2023-24, scoring just 22 points in 57 games, before suffering another season-ending injury to the same knee.

Needless to say, it’s hard to envision Dach bouncing back, at least to the form he displayed upon first being acquired ahead of 2022-23, when he showed great promise in a predominantly top-line role on the wing, scoring 38 points in 58 games (before suffering a separate, non-knee season-ending injury).

Similar to with Bolduc above, if Dach can rediscover his form and actually drive possession and play on the second line, the rest of the NHL had better watch out. Even so, it’s worth noting (again) the team’s second line flopped hard… and the Canadiens still made the playoffs, albeit with a win in Game 82. So, they don’t necessarily need Dach to, but consistent production from the second line would certainly go a long way to pushing the Habs over the top, and perhaps beyond a wild-card finish this time around.

2. Sam Montembeault

Goalie Sam Montembeault may be overrated, but only in the sense he has yet to display the consistency and stamina necessary over an entire season to be considered elite. However, he obviously has the capacity to steal games and start the lion’s share of games for the Canadiens.

After all, according to MoneyPuck.com, Montembeault impressively ranked in the top five in terms of goals saved above expected last season. At no point was his potential more clear than right after the 4 Nations Face-Off, when, fully rested, he went 7-0-3 in his first 10 games back. In the first seven of those games, he earned a .928 save percentage (SV%). As he ended the season with one of .902, it’s abundantly clear he struggled at certain other points as head coach Martin St. Louis admittedly ran him relatively ragged.

Seeing as the league average was .900 last season, Montembeault has still begun to establish himself as one of the better starters. And, at a cost-effective $3.15 million cap hit, he’s one of the best bargains in net. If he can maintain a high level of play from the start of the season to end though, the end may come significantly later.

1. Ivan Demidov

Relative to Montembeault, it’s harder to label rookie Ivan Demidov overrated, just because Canadiens fans have only see him live over a small sample size consisting of the final two games of the last regular season (and the five in the playoffs). However, the hype, which says he’s the favourite to win the Calder Memorial Trophy as an eventual 100-point talent, is real. And, to Demidov’s credit, he certainly showed flashes of game-breaking ability, when he scored two points in his first-ever period of professional hockey in North America.

If Suzuki’s top line is set, Demidov is an X-factor in the sense he could “make” the second line. He wouldn’t necessarily break it if he disappoints, because it’s already in the shop for repairs. So, as alluded to above in the Bolduc and Dach paragraphs, if an elite talent in Demidov can get that second line going in some fashion, the Canadiens suddenly become something of a dark horse.

The difference between Demidov and Bolduc is ceiling. Bolduc just doesn’t have the same high-end talent, although he certainly can complement him incredibly well. The difference between Demidov and Dach is fans already know what a supposedly freshly health Dach brings to the table. Demidov remains much more of a mystery… but not for long.