Toronto Maple Leafs 2025–26 Season: Realistic Expectations

Seeing these statistics is not surprising to those who have watched the Leafs play over the last two years. The Leafs had a high-octane offence under Sheldon Keefe, which is reflected in the 298 goals for in the 2023–24 season. Under Berube, the team collectively scored 31 goals fewer, scoring 229 goals last season, which tied the team for seventh.

But I think we would all agree that this mere sacrifice in goals worked out. The team allowed 32 fewer goals under Berube than under Keefe in the prior year; the team’s penalty kill and total points were higher in both absolute values and in rank. Their power play, while ranking ninth compared to seventh the previous season, did have a slightly better percentage.

For those who watched any sizable number of games last season, these statistics support the “eye test”. The team was noticeably more physical, played a dump-and-chase brand of hockey, and overall, a more playoff-style hockey throughout the regular season. For me and many Leafs fans, it was a welcome change. And it did pay off, as the team advanced further in the playoffs than they had in the previous eight years. 

This upcoming season will see the Leafs further adapt to Berube’s system. After eight seasons under an offence-oriented system, it will take some getting used to. But adjusting to Berube-style hockey should be taken into consideration when setting the team’s expectations for the year.

New changes

We talked in a previous article about how Brad Treliving’s offseason gambles put the team in a better position this year than in previous years. But we are continuing to see the shift in ideology between Brendan Shanahan and Treliving. Treliving prioritized rebuilding the defence last offseason and at the trade deadline. He is continuing to add hard-nosed players that can score (hopefully).

Similarly to how the existing players are still learning Berube’s system, the new additions, mainly Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy, and Dakota Joshua, will require an adjustment period. This can go many ways: they could not pan out at all, they could start slow and mesh better as the season progresses, or they could all be amazing off the get-go.

While the Leafs will miss Mitch Marner’s 27 goals, 75 assists, and 102 points, the Leafs can still be a good team and have good underlying statistics. I believe this less offensive approach is the direction the Leafs desperately need to take. Especially when the indication over the last eight years before Berube showed that the “all offence” approach does not work.

Regardless, that’s not to say we shouldn’t have any expectations for the team or the additions just because they’re new. They are still professional NHL players and are paid big dollars to play a sport they have probably been playing since the age of two.

I think expecting all of the new additions to have career years is a bit unrealistic. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, expecting all of the new additions not to produce is equally unrealistic. How they mesh with the team and coaches remains to be seen. 

Upcoming season expectations

When examining the upcoming season expectations, we also have to consider the fact that several Leafs will likely have a bounce-back season. I am not necessarily talking about the new additions, though they are poised to have better seasons. I am talking about Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly.

It’s hard to give a definitive answer to what we should expect of the Leafs this upcoming season. As much as it pains me to admit this, being a stats person, hockey is very qualitative in nature. We’re not at the point where we can give precise quantitative metrics and predict with a high degree of accuracy (yet).

That being said, I think overall, the team should “look” closer to Berube’s 2018–19 St. Louis Blues than last season. What this suggests is that I would expect the team to further improve their special teams. I don’t think a top-five power play or a top-10 penalty kill is too lofty a goal. I am less focused on overall points in the standings and more focused on the team playing the game the “right way”. They have to learn to hate losing more than they enjoy winning.

In terms of the playoffs, a back-to-back second-round appearance should be a bare minimum. I think it’s a bit frustrating as a Leafs fan that last year’s performance and “feel” should have been year two or year three of the Matthews era. Not year nine. 

I can sense the frustration of many fans because it should be the third round, or even the Stanley Cup final, at this point in the Matthews era. However, I don’t think this season is the season to have those expectations. Next year, it will become more reasonable to expect deeper playoff runs.

But let us know what you think! What are your expectations for the Leafs this season? Leave a comment below!