Toronto Maple Leafs offseason: Matthew Knies’ next contract

Another disappointing end to the playoffs has Toronto Maple Leafs fans once again wanting more from the team. MLSE hasn’t wasted any time by not renewing former President, Brendan Shanahan’s contract. After 11 years and only two playoff wins, change should have happened much sooner.

With John Tavares and Mitch Marner needing new contracts, it appears that change is finally going to happen to the Core Four. Among the major offseason tasks for General Manager Brad Treliving is re-signing restricted free agent Matthew Knies.

Let’s take a look at Knies’ season this year, how important he is to the future of the team, and what his next contract could look like.

Matthew Knies’ breakout year

In the 2022–23 season, Knies had a decent playoff performance against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers before Sam Bennett decided to give Knies a concussion.  Despite the disappointing end to the season, Knies was expected to take the next developmental step during the 2023–24 season.

However, Knies had a disappointing sophomore year. Knies scored 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points during the 2023–24 season. While this is decent production from a second-year NHLer, he largely played with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line. Furthermore, Knies was noticeably pushed around and looked disjointed with his two superstar linemates.

Entering his third year, the 2024–25 season, expectations were even higher for Knies. He once again played with Matthews and Marner on the top line, and Knies had a phenomenal season in Craig Berube’s first year as head coach.

Knies set a career high in goals and assists, scoring 29 of each for 58 points in 78 games. But it was more than the production that had Maple Leafs fans excited. It was how he played all season. Knies was noticeably bigger and stronger on the puck, pushing guys around with ease.

What made him a force was that he would drive to the crease and provide a much-needed presence at the net front. It’s a significant reason why the Maple Leafs’ power play improved over the year. Knies would either screen the goalie or score “garbage” goals by either getting deflections or putting in rebounds. Knies had finally come into his own as a premier power forward in the league by combining his innate skill with his net drive and physicality that you would expect from a prototypical 6’3″ bruiser.

This rare skillset is why Knies is crucial to the Maple Leafs’ success going forward, especially with Mitch Marner likely to leave the Maple Leafs this offseason. 

Knies’ role in the Maple Leafs organization

Knies’ skillset

I think it goes without saying that Knies is perhaps as important as the “Core Four” were when they were RFAs. While not possessing as many high-end skills as Mitch Marner, William Nylander, or Auston Matthews, Knies fills a hole that has been lacking in the Maple Leafs’ organization since arguably Gary Roberts.

A more modern comparison is Zach Hyman. While we know of Hyman’s exploits in Edmonton, after his entry-level deal, Hyman had a career high of 15 goals and 40 points. In fact, during his tenure with the Maple Leafs, Hyman’s highest point totals were 21 goals and 20 assists for 41 points in 71 games.

You could make the argument that the Maple Leafs’ young superstars weren’t as talented then as they are now; however, Hyman noticeably did not possess as much skill as his linemates. And certainly not as much skill as Matthew Knies. In addition, Knies is much more physically imposing than Hyman was.

The Maple Leafs are unlikely to get a 100-point winger/Mitch Marner equivalent this offseason. So Knies’ skill on the rush and in front of the net will be needed, in addition to his physicality. Furthermore, no one in the organization can fill what he brings. The Maple Leafs need Knies more than Knies needs the Maple Leafs. Knies is only 22 years old and will only get better with time.

Knies and Maple Leafs management want the same thing

It has been widely reported that the Maple Leafs were close to getting Mikko Rantanen at the NHL Trade Deadline. One of the trades to land the Finnish superstar involved Knies. Ultimately, the Maple Leafs declined.

Clearly, the Maple Leafs view Knies as a future cornerstone of the franchise. He hits, he scores, he plays the game the right way, and he’s only 22 years old. Furthermore, Knies wants to be in Toronto. In the locker cleanout presser, he was asked about his pending RFA status and a possible offer sheet, and said:

I want to be here. I want to play here. That’s all that matters to me.

It’s no wonder that Knies has already become a fan favourite. The way Knies conducts himself on and off the ice leads me to think he could be the future captain, depending on how things shape up when Matthews’ contract expires. Both Knies and the Maple Leafs want the same thing: For Knies to be a Maple Leaf for the long term. But in a salary cap era, what will his next contract look like?

Knies’ next contract

In February, we took a look at what Knies’ contract could look like. At that time, we said that his closest comparable was likely a young Chris Kreider, and a contract worth in the $4.5–6.5M AAV range for 4–6 years was fair for both sides.

After the recent playoff performance, this AAV is likely higher. Knies finished second on the team in playoff goals with five, tied with pending UFA John Tavares. Out of the superstars on the team, Knies is the only player who plays the power forward game and thus has an advantage in negotiations. 

However, for the Maple Leafs, Knies has had one good season during his ELC contract. Furthermore, Knies has largely played on a line centred by Auston Matthews and with star winger Mitch Marner. Without Marner, does Knies’ production go down? 

According to Natural Stat Trick, at all strengths without Marner, goals for decreased from 65 to 10, and expected goals dropped from 57.12 to 7.73. Without Knies, goals for decreased to 29, and expected goals decreased to 29.82.

Obviously, there will be a right winger that plays with Knies and Matthews when the 2025–26 season starts. Nonetheless, it’s not far-fetched to think that Knies’ production will suffer even with Marner’s replacement.

Possible offer sheet?

There are rumours about Knies being subject to an offer sheet. However, based on Knies’ comments about wanting to play in Toronto, I think an offer sheet is unlikely. It’s one thing for a team to offer sheet Knies, it’s another thing for Knies to ultimately accept it. Besides, based on the NHL’s offer sheet compensation, anything below the $7.02-9.36M tier, the Maple Leafs obviously match.

Even if a team were to offer the maximum of $9.36M x 6–7 years, I still think the Maple Leafs match because with the rising salary cap, the contract will age well. The interesting question becomes whether a team offers Knies a salary in the $9.36-11.7M or > $11.7M tier. In this case, depending on the amount, the Maple Leafs would probably still match, given they passed on Rantanen and were willing to sign Rantanen to an $13.5M x eight-year contract.

Still, Knies is unlikely to develop into a Rantanen, so the comparison is not apples to apples. Even if a team offered Knies $11M, and the Maple Leafs figured this was too much for the young winger, the Maple Leafs would effectively receive a draft class in two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick as compensation. If a team is willing to pay Knies more than $11.7M, I imagine that the Maple Leafs would gladly accept the four first-round picks. But I think it’s unlikely that a team offers Knies this absurd amount of money.

Short-term or long-term deal?

The question becomes, what does Knies want? Does he want the security of a longer contract? Or is he going to bet on himself like the previous Maple Leafs superstars did and squeeze the organization for every penny?

I think the reality is that a power forward has a certain shelf life. It’s hard to play the game like Knies does every year, game after game. There is, therefore, an argument that Knies would seek a longer-term deal. But at the same time, with the recent contract history for the Maple Leafs’ stars, is there any reason why Knies wouldn’t prioritize maximum dollars on a short-term deal like his teammates?

I think if Knies wants a short-term contract, based on the rest of the season and playoffs, and the salary cap rising over the next few years, I think the number is $5.5-6.75M AAV x 4–6 years. On a longer deal, I think Knies receives $7-8.25M AAV x 7–8 years. The Maple Leafs should try everything possible to sign Knies long-term, as the deal could end up being a bargain like Nylander’s $6.9M AAV x 6 years contract in 2018. Regardless, one thing is certain: Knies will be a Maple Leaf for years to come.

What do you think Knies gets on his next contract? Let us know what you think below!