Toronto Maple Leafs: Trade strategies for offseason success

If the Leafs truly let Mitch Marner walk in free agency, the opportunities that come with cap space will be open. These opportunities are multiplied if the Leafs are able to trade other important players. The drop off in talent will be steep, but the right moves might be able to improve the team on aggregate. Without much hope for internal development, the Leafs will likely have to rely on their professional scouts, whether through free agency or trade.

It is challenging to buy a team in free agency, however shrewd one might be. There are only so many players available for whom interest and opportunity are mutual. With the salary cap increasing, the class should also be more expensive. While free agency can be a useful tool, the Leafs will need to work the trade market to upgrade their team.

Let’s take a closer look at some types of trades the Leafs might be able to explore. Of course, there are matters that complicate trades from all sides, including plenty of trade protection, not to mention finding value for the teams involved.

Low-cost veterans

Without their own first-round pick until 2028, the Leafs have no benefit in a losing record. The team should be less bothered by exploring older options, as they have under GM Brad Treliving. There should be some opportunity to target solid players with one to three years left from teams looking to offload salary. Even with the cap increase, there will be teams looking to add more space. Some Leafs fans might even be dreaming of a similar situation with Morgan Rielly or David Kampf, for example.

Rielly is a good example because he is still a capable defenceman, though perhaps not quite what he once was. Other players around the league might be in more precarious situations, more obviously on the trade block. There would be a risk here, of course, in betting on a change of scenery refreshing an older player.

To list all the potential examples would be too much, but rumours surround Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider of the New York Rangers, who seem intent on shaking things up. Erik Karlsson remains in trade rumours. New GMs for the New York Islanders, Seattle Kraken, and Los Angeles Kings might make some players available, perhaps Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The Vancouver Canucks might have to continue reshaping their roster. Might Dakota Joshua or Connor Garland be available?

The upside here is that these contracts will likely be less expensive and have a shorter term remaining than those available in unrestricted free agency. There have been many examples of cap constraints yielding a far lower return than a player’s salary alone might suggest. The Leafs might be able to net a decent player or two for mid-level prices due to their larger cap hits.

Betting on youth

It might be worthwhile to take a swing on a younger player who might grow into a prominent role. The Leafs will only have so much trade ammunition, and the path to success lies in pinpoint accuracy from the professional scouting department. Young NHLers and late-blooming AHLers who are undervalued would be high-upside additions to help make up for the Leafs’ lack of high-end prospects.

The risk here relies on projections for players who are less coveted at the moment. The appetite should be much bigger now that there is more change on the horizon. The Leafs cannot afford high-end prospects, but perhaps a struggling NHL player or one who is blocked from receiving more ice time can be unearthed. For now, only the high-profile names are involved in rumours, like Bowen Byram.

Perhaps some younger forwards who have fallen out of favour with their current teams could be available. Mattias Maccelli and Josh Doan of the Utah Mammoth might be some examples, as both seemed to have fallen out of favour after the team moved from Arizona.

Although not exactly through trade, Treliving has utilized the unqualified RFA market to supplement his roster with players like Simon Benoit in years past. This will rely on other teams leaving players unqualified, but there could be gems to be unearthed. A more direct example that has yet to pay off is the acquisition of Cade Webber. In all, it is encouraging that Treliving has been open to the idea of taking some swings on youth despite the Leafs’ investment in the present.

Positions

The Leafs are fairly set in net and on the blueline, unless they decide to make needs. Trading Morgan Rielly, for example, will create a need for a puck-moving defenceman in his stead. Even with Dennis Hildeby and Artur Akhtyamov pushing closer to NHL roles, it is still quite hasty to consider trading Joseph Woll. Still, any big trades will require the Leafs to offer up value in return.

Instead, the Leafs will be looking for forwards, especially centres. Even if John Tavares decides to re-sign with the team, there is a good chance the Leafs will look to add a centre. Mitch Marner is widely expected to leave, so some offensive firepower will be in order as well.

Even before considering that players like David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok might be dealt, the Leafs should be looking to add some forwards. Free agency will be a significant part of the puzzle, as will some internal development; however, there should be an expectation that the Leafs will also explore the trade market.