Trade deadline primer for the Arizona Coyotes

Most Coyotes fans were impressed with 23-year-old Barrett Hayton’s play this season before a hand injury sustained in November shut him down long-term. He’s yet to return from the injury, which was only supposed to sideline him until Christmas, but a setback sustained last month has lengthened his recovery. He had put up decent possession numbers and passed the eye test in a first-line role between Keller and Nick Schmaltz, but the production wasn’t there, posting only two goals and two assists in 16 games. Could that stretch be enough for Armstrong to consider moving the 2018 fifth-overall pick in a deal for a more pressing need? Jack McBain, only a year older than Hayton, has recently stepped into the first-line job and has three points in his last five games. He’s had positive possession impacts in the role, but not as strong as Hayton’s, who posted a 58.9% expected goals share when on the ice with Keller and Schmaltz compared to McBain’s 51.4% (per MoneyPuck).

Short-term UFA pickups Alexander Kerfoot and Jason Zucker have been important in middle-six roles for Arizona this year, especially Kerfoot – his 0.58 points per game are the most among the Coyotes’ centers. They likely won’t be on their way out unless Armstrong receives an offer he can’t refuse.

If Armstrong does look to move out one of Arizona’s recent veteran pickups, look for it to be defenseman Mathew Dumba. While defense is likely the area the Coyotes are looking to fortify with deadline additions, Dumba has struggled in the desert and could help them swing a deal for an upgrade. The 29-year-old has five points in 44 games with a 45% Corsi share at even strength that ranks near the bottom of the team. With a retention slot open, they could absorb half of his $3.9M cap hit on a one-year deal and make him a palatable deadline add for a contending team looking to bring in a veteran for their third pairing.

Team Needs

1) Left-Shot Defenseman: The Coyotes may lack strength at center ice, but their winger group is deep enough to quell any scoring concerns for now. There’s a far more pressing need on the back end, which has largely struggled outside of the J.J. Moser–Sean Durzi pairing. Dumba’s flamed out in the desert, Travis Dermott and Juuso Välimäki are having down seasons, and penalty-kill specialist Josh Brown isn’t suited for an everyday NHL role. Inserting a top-four threat such as Hanifin gives head coach André Tourigny much more flexibility with his pairings and would allow for more puck-moving support outside of Durzi and Moser. 24-year-old call-up Michael Kesselring has done well in his 31 games this year and is inching toward cracking the team’s second pairing on a full-time basis, but he’ll need a better partner than what they have to offer him now if that will convert into a playoff berth.

2) Don’t Sell The Farm Early: While one splash is likely feasible for Armstrong, especially on the blue line given their current roster construction and lack of bona fide top-four prospects, multiple big swings are unwise for a team whose best years are still ahead of them. Their first-round picks are likely more valuable in their hands on draft day than used as fodder in a deadline deal, especially considering help at center ice will come soon with the growth of Logan Cooley and the incoming NHL debut of 2022 11th overall pick Conor Geekie. Things are looking up for the Coyotes (at least on the ice), but there’s still more growth to come.