Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

High-value, middle-six forwards with term will remain attractive. In doing so, they’ll need to put forth a package in which the most attractive asset is worth more than a mid-to-late second-round pick. If they were in anything close to legitimate talks to acquire Panarin, even as a rental, they had to at least breach the subject of flipping their new top prospect. Tampa acquired center Sam O’Reilly from the Oilers last summer in a swap of late first-round picks last offseason. The 32nd overall pick in the 2024 draft, O’Reilly is in his final junior season in the OHL and was recently traded by the London Knights to the Kitchener Rangers. He hasn’t shown overwhelming offensive development since his draft year, but he was always touted as a safe, two-way third-line agitator with good vision.

If, for example, Tampa were to pursue a reunion with Flames winger Blake Coleman, they’d likely need to leverage O’Reilly to get him. The retooling Flames are under no imminent pressure to move him, since his deal runs through next season at a $4.9MM cap hit, and their ask from Tampa would likely be higher anyway, since Calgary would need to retain money on Coleman if they’re not taking a roster player back. They gave up a first-round pick to get him from the Devils back in 2020 and, while they don’t have a close one to spare this time around, O’Reilly could hold similar value.

Any trade the Bolts make is unlikely to involve a roster player of any consequence going the other way. They’ve been hanging on by a thread due to injuries for most of the campaign anyway and, while some expert coaching from Jon Cooper has kept their underlying numbers on the up-and-up throughout, making any meaningful subtraction from their depth – unless they’re bringing in multiple pieces like last year’s Bjorkstrand/Gourde pickup from Seattle – is antithetical to the Bolts’ usual preferences. One name they could have more comfortably leveraged, center Jack Finley, was just claimed off waivers by the Blues.

Behind O’Reilly, Tampa’s prospect pool was regarded as one of the weakest in the league entering the season. Years of contention will do that. That notion has been somewhat salvaged by an incredible breakout from 2025 fourth-rounder Benjamin Rautianen, though. In his native Finland, the 20-year-old center has exploded for 17 goals and 61 points in 46 games with Tappara, leading the Liiga in scoring. Expecting the Bolts to be willing to lose both O’Reilly and Rautianen in one trade deadline might simply be too much risk for a team without much else in the pipeline, though.

Team Needs

Third-Line Piece: It just so happens that Tampa’s preferred deadline target continues to make too much sense this time around. A down year for Point and injuries to him and Cirelli make their depth chart look thin down the middle at the moment, but at full strength, that’s not a concern. Finding someone to bump a more offensively limited name like Gage Goncalves out of a top-nine role on the wing, though, would be a legitimately helpful addition to an offense that already ranks fourth in the league at the Olympic break. Coleman makes sense, as could pending UFA Michael Bunting out of Nashville.

Right-Shot Depth On Defense: Tampa doesn’t need a needle-mover on the blue line. Darren Raddysh‘s breakout this season has ensured that. Still, he and Erik Černák are the only two righties in the system capable of playing NHL minutes in the postseason on a regular basis. Maxwell Crozier is a fine depth option, but expecting him to step into the top four in case Černák or Raddysh gets hurt – or dealing with some chemistry issues by icing so many lefties – isn’t a great thought. An experienced rental 3RD option for a mid-round pick, like Connor Murphy or a reunion with Luke Schenn, might be a shrewd move.