Trading Noah Dobson is a Terrible Idea: Here’s Why

The New York Islanders are currently amid a surge back into the playoff race. During this surge, Noah Dobson suffered a major injury and won’t return until after the Four Nation Face-Off. Now, seemingly out of nowhere, Noah Dobson finds himself all over trade rumors from less-than-reputable sources (Seriously, before today, raise your hand if you’d heard of RG Media).

The idea of having Noah Dobson on the trade block defies all common logic, and trading him away for anything of lesser value is a terrible idea and one the franchise will regret for the next decade.

Reason #1: Recency Bias is Always Bad for Trades

Dobson, who turned 25 in January, is one of two defensemen in franchise history to record a 70-point season. The other is Denis Potvin. By all metrics and analytics, Dobson is one of the elite defensemen in the NHL, with a great scoring touch to boot. Last year, Dobson finished top-10 in Norris Trophy voting, something that does not happen for defenders on the Islanders.

At just 25 years old, he’s just starting to enter the conventional prime for a defenseman in the NHL. This season has been a struggle, and he’d be the first to say he hasn’t played well enough. When Team Canada passed him over for the Four Nation Face-Off, he blamed himself and his poor play.

Since his injury, Anthony DeAngelo signed on and has played alongside Alexander Romanov. He looked more than serviceable, but his defensive metrics still leave much to be desired underneath the hood. DeAngelo is a great stopgap at age 29 but is far from a long-term solution for a key position. Heck, he still hasn’t registered a single power play point.

A big reason why Dobson and Romanov struggled early in the season was Romanov’s clear injury. Romanov suffered an undisclosed upper-body injury, one that ailed him until January. Romanov only missed around a dozen games, but it’s clear he was not himself for a long stretch. That left Dobson overcompensating and making uncharacteristic mistakes, all while the Islanders sunk lower in the standings.

Recency bias makes you think Dobson is expendable. He’s not. He recorded 70 points in 79 games last year while averaging nearly 25 minutes a night. He’s down to roughly 20 a night this year, and his production has dipped. Factor in the injury and an extended winning streak with him absent from the lineup, and you’ve got a perfect recipe for people to think he’s a trade chip when he should be virtually untouchable.

Reason #2: Learn from the Past:

Noah Dobson is a pending RFA this summer. The decision on whether or not to extend him long-term now feels questionable after his shaky season after a dominant 2023-24 campaign.

In October of 2020, the Islanders faced a difficult decision. After losing in six games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Final, the team had to re-sign 26-year-old RFA defenseman Devon Toews or trade him away. The Islanders were in a cap crunch then and likely would’ve had to part with 29-year-old Nick Leddy to make it work.

Team President and General Manager Lou Lamoriello watched in the playoffs in the 2020 bubble as Toews recorded 10 points in 22 games while averaging over 20 minutes a game. He became a blossoming star, and his analytics were absolutely sparkling. He screamed future star, a player to build the defense around alongside Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield.

Instead, recency bias prevailed after a bad series against the Philadelphia Flyers and a pedestrian one against the Lightning. Lamoriello shipped off the young and emerging Toews for a paltry two second-round picks. Toews went on to win a Stanley Cup and is one-half of, for most people’s money, the best pairing in the NHL. He’s on Team Canada’s roster for the tournament and is also a presumptive lock for the Olympics in 2026.

What did the Islanders do with the picks? They traded both the first second-round pick as a part of a package to dump Andrew Ladd’s contract onto the Arizona Coyotes. They used the other to select Calle Odelius in 2022, and so far, he has not developed as well as New York would’ve hoped, and an NHL future is very murky.

Reason #3: Any Trade of Dobson Creates a Major Hole

Look, I get it. Dobson is a trade chip and has some serious value. But trading him to recoup assets does not make any sense. DeAngelo’s never stuck consistently with any team for multiple reasons, chief among them being his inability to play good hockey consistently.

Adam Boqvist, the other right-shot defenseman, was selected in the same draft as Dobson, just a few picks higher. In 230 career games, Boqvist has 92 points. As a reminder, Dobson had 70 in just 79 games last year. While Boqvist still possesses clear potential, there’s a reason he was on waivers.

Frankly, the only way the Islanders even trade Dobson is if he’s part of a larger deal to bring in a player of Elias Pettersson’s value. Even then, it creates a massive hole on the Islanders’ right side of their defense for now and in the future. No right-shot defensemen are in the pipeline with any type of potential that Dobson already has.

You’d have to replace Dobson externally or hope and pray that Boqvist breaks out or DeAngelo bucks the trend of his career and finds true consistency, both of which feel unlikely. DeAngelo is a free agent this summer and the organization wouldn’t commit to him long-term. Ditto that for Boqvist, a pending RFA.

Closing Statement

Trade talk is fun. I get it, but trading Dobson is the worst thing this franchise can do at this point. He’s a pivotal part of this franchise for the next decade. If he never gets back to that high-upside offensive scoring with 70+ points, then this team likely isn’t headed anywhere anyway.

But they’re certainly not going anywhere by dumping him off at this deadline all while he’s at a low in value. It’s the same reason the Islanders got two pennies for a diamond in Toews. Asset management is a giant part of the game.

If you think you can easily find another 70-point right-shot defenseman, all while winning a trade that dumps off a 25-year-old entering his prime, be my guest.

Moving on from Dobson would be detrimental.