Waiting until the trade deadline for a top six forward: Good idea or bad idea?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have made a lot of changes this summer. You’ve already noticed that. And as Alex Hobson succinctly put it on Monday, the Leafs have done an excellent job of addressing their bottom six forward group but there are question marks about upgrading the top six group.

The summer is a strange time for making additions. Free agency has already shown the ridiculous prices being paid for what often isn’t substantial talent, and to Brad Treliving’s credit, he did an excellent job of avoiding the grenades that come from a limited crop of players in an offseason that saw a significant jump in the salary cap, enabling bidding wars on Mikael Granlund and Christian Dvorak somehow walking away with a $5.4M deal.

The trade market hasn’t been overly active when it comes to top six talent either. Following the draft, the Leafs might have been the team that has made the biggest splash by picking up a borderline top six player in Matias Maccelli for a third round pick. The Blue Jackets took a similar gamble on Charlie Coyle by dealing a couple of picks and taking on Miles Woods contract as well, and the Wild might have been the savviest by gambling on Vladimir Tarasenko for future considerations.

Pre-draft, the market was more active, and it might serve as a lesson for future off-seasons as J.J. Peterka, Trevor Zegras, Mason Marchment, Chris Kreider, and Evander Kane were all dealt in favourable deals for the teams acquiring them. While it is said that the Leafs were at least in on Peterka and Marchment and that’s a sign that an effort was made, it doesn’t change the fact that the Leafs could still use at least one top six forward and the price has gone up while the supply has dwindled.

The supply and demand side of things is a big part of what leads to the premise here. At this point of the offseason, at the height of season ticket sales and leading into the launch of individual ticket sales, even bad teams are going to want to hold onto what they have as marketable offence. The Sabres aren’t going to put a “For Sale” sign on Alex Tuch when they need to sell tickets and likely can’t rely on Canadians crossing the border for games in the volume they used to.

The Penguins will want to at least give it a go and see if they can grab a Wild Card spot before approaching Evgeni Malkin about whether or not he’s open to a move. And teams like the Ducks, Blackhawks, and Sharks are going to want some veteran talent for their young stars to work with, at least for the early months of the season.

Additionally, the rising cap has made it so fewer teams need to jettison salary to become cap compliant.

Throw in the fact that pretty much every team can use another top six forward or an upgrade in that area and Brad Treliving has a near impossible task and of course, the added pressure because of Mitch Marner’s departure and the standard is set higher than just a “top six forward”, the Leafs want a top line forward with some consistency to their production.

All that considered, it might be a good idea for the Leafs to wait until the trade deadline to add a top six forward.

Good Idea

The definition for a top six forward is murky. If you go by forwards who exceeded 15 minutes of icetime a night, Nicolas Roy is a top six forward and at times in their careers Max Domi, Scott Laughton, and Matias Maccelli have been top six forwards as well, so it’s not out of realm of possibility to use them that way again.

Looking at production, Bobby McMann, Nicolas Roy, and Nick Robertson all top half of the league for goal scoring, and Roy, Laughton, and Domi are close to being top six players by overall points as well. The Leafs have a lot of internal bubble options to fill the gaps, but it goes without saying that the Leafs are counting on a lot of players taking steps forward or returning to previous form to deliver in their lineup.

The Leafs also have Easton Cowan, Nick Robertson, and now Matias Maccelli that are on the younger side and could be ready to fill spots in the lineup card they previously hadn’t been able to. This is more wishful thinking, but when looking at the Leafs roster it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Toronto doesn’t just go with the hot hands out of their pool of available players to deploy with what is a pretty solid start to a top six group in Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and Knies.

Playing the cards they hold presently allows the Leafs to see whether Max Domi on the wing is a significant improvement over having him at centre. And aside from Nylander, Domi is likely the next most creative playmaking forward to put with Auston Matthews and presumably both with get their opportunities on the top line to test the best fit. With enough personnel already in the system and some hope for improved results from the group they have, waiting to see what happens over the course of the season and waiting to see where the gaps are in the Leafs lineup might be wise as it gives Brad Treliving time to see his greatest area of needs after already overhauling a good portion of the forward group this summer.

The other reason it may be a good idea to wait is that there is some promise from the deadline rental market. The Kraken alone have Mason Marchment, Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz, and Eeli Tolvanen as potential rentals, not to mention the possibility that if they are on track to miss the playoffs again, Jared McCann could be made available, and Toronto could right a wrong. The Sabres and the previously mentioned target of Alex Tuch make sense, as does potential for Malkin being made available from Pittsburgh. The Blue Jackets could deal Boone Jenner or Charlie Coyle, the Flames have Mikael Backlund, and the Canadiens have Patrik Laine as an option as well.

This is just largely focusing on the rentals and there is always the potential for others being shopped as well. It is far too early to know who will be available but what does seem certain is that teams are generally more receptive to trades in season after it’s clear they are out of the playoff picture rather than the summer when it feels like everyone is a hot goaltender away from a playoff berth.

The Leafs can do what they can in the meantime to have the cap space and assets in place to be trade deadline players and learn what they can about their three new forwards as well as how much they can push their existing group beyond their 2024-25 results.

Bad idea

Selling this as a bad idea to a fanbase that has constantly had their patience tested is fairly easy. And giving the benefit of doubt that the Leafs will address their issues at the trade deadline feels a bit like trusting that Lucy will hold the football down for Charlie Brown. The Leafs entered the 2023-24 season with a very clear need for a top four defenceman upgrade and at the trade deadline it was met with bringing in not one but two depth defenders in Joel Edmundson and Ilya Lyubushkin. The 2024-25 season started with the Leafs needing a true third line centre and one that could push John Tavares for the second line spot and the Leafs instead dealt a first to Philadelphia for fourth line centre Scott Laughton. Starting the season with a gap to fill seems like acknowledging now that the Leafs are on a collision course for overpaying for Jeff Skinner in March. (Is that too pessimistic? For what it’s worth I don’t doubt that Skinner will do better this year.)

There is also the matter of Brad Treliving being reluctant to build teams in season and that he views the offseason as the opportunity to get all his ducks in a row. By his own approach the time is now, and he has little interest in leaving things as a work in progress. Leaving an intentional gap ignores the fact that injuries will happen, some players won’t be a fit, and other needs will develop over time. As well as it would be nice to head into the deadline looking for a top talent that puts Toronto over the top rather than plugs a hole.

Just because it is difficult to find a player now doesn’t mean it’s impossible, and if Brad Treliving wants to assert that he’s the right man for the job to his new boss Keith Pelley, moving mountains to find a top six forward for the Leafs is a fair expectation.

While the Leafs aren’t deep in resources to pull off a big move, they unquestionably have players that can bring back a worthwhile forward in return right now. Easton Cowan will draw plenty of interest, Ben Danford and the Leafs AHL goaltenders are promising prospects as well, and there is bound to be at least one team that is willing to wait until 2028 for an extra first round pick, or will find value in the Leafs’ 2027 second round pick. With almost two months still to go before training camp it is far too early to pack it in on the idea of upgrading.