What are reasonable expectations for David Tomasek with the Oilers?

David Tomasek’s SHL numbers

Tomasek is coming off a rock-solid season in Sweden, where he put up 24 goals and 33 assists in 47 games for Färjestad BK Karlstad. That was good enough to lead the SHL in scoring with a five-point lead over the second-place finisher. And for those unfamiliar, like myself, I read a lot about how the SHL isn’t some free-flowing pond hockey league. Instead, it’s structured, disciplined, and notoriously stingy offensively, so producing at a point-per-game pace in the SHL is rare.

He also played top-line minutes for the Czech Republic at the 2024 IIHF World Championship, holding that spot until David Pastrnak joined the roster. The tools are clearly there, but is the NHL a realistic goal for him at age 29? I’m hoping so, and clearly the Oilers are too. But before we get too excited or scribble his name in anywhere in the lineup, I found a post on Reddit that puts the project into context a little more clearly.

Reddit research that puts it all into perspective

Reddit user u/Fine_Personality_999 put together one of the most grounded and helpful takes I’ve seen on Tomasek’s signing. Here’s the core of it:

Since 2000, only two forwards have:

• Been 28 or older
• Never played an NHL game before
• Played in the SHL the season prior

…and gone on to have substantial NHL careers. Those two players are Derek Ryan and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.

Ryan was the SHL MVP at 28, started in the AHL, and eventually carved out a very productive NHL run. Bellemare put up 12 points in 81 games during his first NHL season with Philly. That’s it. That’s the list. In fact, only one skater since 2000 has made their NHL debut at age 29 or older, played 100+ games, and put up a 30-point season. Again, that’s Derek Ryan.

As u/Fine_Personality_999 put it: “Statistically speaking, it’s far more likely [Tomasek] scores that much in Bakersfield than in the NHL.” Fair. But if you want to dream a little, Tomasek did outscore both Ryan (points-per-game) and Bellemare in the SHL. This is where I insert the Lloyd Christmas line from Dumb and Dumber. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

What the scouts and analysts say

Daily Faceoff prospect analyst Steven Ellis liked what he saw from Tomasek at the World Championships:

“It’s not an easy league to produce in [the SHL],” Ellis said on Oilersnation Everyday. “Being a point-per-game player in most European leagues is tough to do. Scoring just isn’t as high in those leagues. I really liked watching him last year at the World Championship. This is someone who was playing top line for the Czechs until David Pastrňák arrived.”

“He’s good at faceoffs, but I wonder if he’ll be put on the wing in the NHL,” Ellis added. “He can play a role on the penalty kill. Also, I think he’s capable of playing with high-end talent. You’re looking at a guy who, at best, is fitting in on your third line, but he can step up higher in the lineup. I do think he should be a full-time NHL player next year.”

Over at The Athletic, Scott Wheeler described Tomasek as “a good-sized centre who has produced at the top of the SHL but is also reliable defensively.” He noted that Tomasek is strong in the faceoff dot, drives play well, and brings a competitive edge. “He should add to the Oilers’ depth down the middle,” Wheeler added.

Bruce Curlock also weighed in, calling Tomasek “a powerful skater, but not a quick transition skater,” and likened his stride to Noah Philp — meaning he may need specific linemates to make it work in the NHL’s tempo-heavy bottom six.

The contract structure

Tomasek signed a one-year deal worth $1.2 million back in April, which is just slightly above the NHL’s buriable limit of $1.15 million. If he gets sent down, ~$50,000 would stay on the cap. That’s not a huge hit, but it suggests that the Oilers believe he could be more than just a paper transaction. With jobs available to grab in the bottom-six, the Oilers will give him a real chance to win a job in camp, and possibly more depending on how he looks in preseason action and early in the season.

With the team’s cap space all but gone, finding value in depth signings like this is crucial, but they only matter if the player is able to contribute meaningfully. If Tomasek sticks with the Oilers, he’s a win. If he doesn’t, the cost is very low. Either way, bringing in the top point-producer from the SHL for a looksee is a reasonable strategy with the potential for a big impact if things work out. More specifically, even with the salary cap going up over the coming years, the Oilers need cheap contracts for valuable players.

What’s a reasonable expectation?

Let’s take a breath here. Without playing even a single shift of NHL action, there’s no need to pencil Tomasek in for 30 points and second-line duty. He’s likely battling for a fourth-line spot or maybe third-line minutes if things really go our way. At least, that’s what I think/hope anyway. If he gives the Oilers 10–15 points, kills penalties, and provides reliable shifts when McDavid and Draisaitl aren’t on the ice, then the signing was a success, right? He doesn’t have to produce a ton of offence to be valuable, does he?

And if he ends up in Bakersfield, lighting up the AHL while staying ready for call-ups? That’s fine too. There’s no downside to giving a high-end SHL scorer a look as long as the expectations are reasonable. Of course, if things don’t work out for Tomasek in Edmonton, it’s been reported that he has an exit clause in his contract that would allow him to bail on North America and head back to Sweden. That lowers the risk on this bet even further from an Oilers perspective in case things don’t work out.

The Wrap

From my side of the computer screen, I see that David Tomasek is a classic “why not?” type of signing. He’s earned the opportunity after some consistent success over in Sweden. He’s produced everywhere he’s gone. And while history says the odds are long that he makes a significant impact in the NHL, that’s exactly what scratch tickets are — they’re long shots. Some pay off. Most don’t. But if Tomasek grinds out even a fraction of the NHL career that Derek Ryan did, the Oilers will surely be satisfied with the return on their bet. That said, it’s super important to have reasonable expectations for the guy in his first year in North America.

Huge credit goes to u/Fine_Personality_999 over on Reddit for the research and 1000% reasonable take on the situation. It’s easy to get swept up in highlights and projections, but historical context in situations like this matters. After being mostly rudderless on the topic since Tomasek signed in April, seeing the numbers broken down this way was incredibly helpful. As for me? I don’t know what to expect. But I’ll be watching, curious, and quietly hoping this is one of those stories that works out better than anyone thought. Dare to dream? Why not? It’s Kool-Aid season.