What does a successful 2025-26 season look like for Auston Matthews?

Auston Matthews was named the 26th captain in Toronto Maple Leafs history on August 14, 2024, marking the next phase of his career. Matthews entered the 2024-25 campaign with stratospheric expectations attached to him, coming off a 69-goal campaign where he established himself as the best scorer alive. Unfortunately, Matthews wasn’t healthy after suffering an undisclosed upper-body injury in training camp, which he fought through the duration of the season.

“It’s a very tough season, I don’t need to get into the specifics of stuff, but it happened to me in training camp, obviously wasn’t feeling great for the first month or so of the season,” Matthews said at the Maple Leafs’ end-of-year media availability on May 20. “I took some time off, went to Germany, all of these things to try and feel better, than, you know, just kind of in a place that I felt like I could manage it.”

Adjudging Matthews’ healthy was arguably the trickiest component of covering the Leafs last year. Matthews often looked fine in practice sessions, ripping the puck with his usual velocity, but he would often need a minute or two before resuming routine shooting drills. And though his ability to play through contract was clearly affected, Matthews would still hound down pucks and get into the fight. Toronto controlled 53 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5, which is more than fine for almost any player in the NHL. It constituted the worst share of Matthews’ career since the 2018-19 season, and he finished with 33 goals and 78 points in 67 games.

During the most pressure-packed playoffs his career, Matthews’ offence often waned when the Leafs needed it most. Matthews did indeed score the game-winning goal in Game 6 against the Florida Panthers, but it’s lost to history as Toronto’s captain submitted abysmal performances in Game 5 and 7, then called out the team for having too many passengers, after registering two shots in the closeout game. In a vacuum, you could argue it was a successful season, a 78-point campaign with elite defence, but the parameters of usual stardom don’t apply to a player of Matthews’ calibre.

The goal: Re-establish himself as the best goal scorer on the planet 

We can discuss expected goals share and defensive impact all day — and we will, with round-the-clock coverage of the Leafs — but Matthews is paid to score goals first, and do all the small things well in conjunction. Matthews converted at a 12.6 percent clip, the second-worst total of his career and the laws of regression would dictate that he’s in line for a major boost next year. It’s clear that Matthews’ injury affected his long-range shooting and accuracy, while fighting through painful instances throughout the playoffs. And while Toronto’s captain has been reticent to discuss his injury with media, there is an expectation he’ll be fully recovered by the start of the season, although Matthews did hint in January that it could be an ailment that lingers.

There’s another key adjustment Matthews will have to make: getting used to life without Mitch Marner on the wing. Matthews and Marner were often stapled together, they’re best friends off the ice, and the dynamic winger was the Maple Leafs’ regular season MVP with 102 points. Matias Maccelli is expected to get the first look alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies on the Maple Leafs’ first line and while the left-handed dynamic skater is a good playmaker at the top of his game, there’s a significant drop-off from Marner’s standard.

It’s an uphill task, but Matthews is a Hart Trophy-winning, face of the franchise on a team that is expected to make a deep playoff run, even if they are expected to be about 6-8 points worse during the regular season. It’s what comes with the territory of captaining the Maple Leafs.

The expectation: Return to 50-goal form 

If you take Matthews’ shooting percentage over the past three years, combined with his shot output, while knowing that last year was an anomaly of sorts, he’s still projected to reach 50 goals for the 2025-26 season. Expecting 50 goals out of your star centre is often an unreasonable ask. For a scorer of Matthews’ calibre, who can rip the puck like few others from inside the faceoff circle and beyond, it’s a reasonable goal. We’re talking about a two-time 60-goal scorer who is firmly in the middle of his prime, armed with a burgeoning power forward in Knies on his left wing, and an offensive-minded, pass-first winger in Maccelli on the right flank.