What is Dylan Larkin Actually Worth?

What truly is the value of a first-line center these days? Frankly, it’s been so long since one has moved that I think the market is yet to truly have a baseline. It’s not like defencemen or wingers, where the precedent has been set by players like Quinn Hughes or Mikko Rantanen. A center who can play all situations while putting up 30+ goals on an offensively inept roster is arguably the most valuable position in hockey, so the return should be pretty large.

Since 2023-24, Dylan Larkin ranks 32nd in the entire NHL in total WAR (wins above replacement). In the top 50, only five other players have been traded. Two of them being the Mitch Marner and Artemi Panarin trades, both deals where the player was due to pick their destination anyway. Here are the returns for the players who were traded.

*Larkin was rated a +9.46, numbers from advancedhockeystats.com

If this list does anything, it shows just how difficult it can be to pin down a star player’s value. Obviously, Mitch Marner, Artemi Panarin, and Jake Guentzel were dealt on expiring deals, but you can see just how much variance there is between them.

However, the two who were traded with some term left were Martin Necas and Quinn Hughes, both of whom got pretty elite returns. With Larkin having five years left on his deal, it will surely give whatever team is trading for him some comfort. Though neither of those players had trade protection, which means they were sold to the highest bidder.

There is one more trade I think is important to discuss before moving on, though, J.T. Miller’s trade. J.T. Miller also had a full no movement clause and requested a trade out of Vancouver, landing the following return.

While it seems like the most likely comparison, this is ultimately the worst-case scenario for the Red Wings. A C-tier prospect, a reclamation project player, and a mid-first round draft pick. There will certainly be general managers claiming this is the range Dylan Larkin belongs in.

So ultimately, Larkin will land somewhere in the Range of J.T. Miller as the worst case to Quinn Hughes as the best case. But, there is some sort of inflation in the NHL with trades that might lead to Larkin’s deal looking better than his peers, but only relative to a more expensive market.

Market Value

Let’s start by looking at the post-Quinn Hughes market. Of the players who slotted into the top six or top four of their original team and had one or more years of term, here are the returns.

Here’s the bad news. None of these returns are franchise-resetting level trades. The good news is Dylan Larkin is worth at the very least double what each of these players is for either term, age, production, cap hit, or all of the above. So, the J.T. Miller trade isn’t something to worry about happening to the Red Wings here.

What we do know is that Blues forward Robert Thomas, who is of a similar profile to Dylan Larkin, had his value set very high, but nobody was willing to go all in. The rumor that I read online and saw repeated in a few places with Buffalo was along the lines of Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and Konsta Helenius.

With teams not having any major players to chase in free agency and most of the NHL looking to improve, teams may be willing to pay a price at that level for Dylan Larkin, given his pedigree and consistency to this point. If that’s the cost in a high market, then it’s worth it every second for Detroit.

Potential Deals

No matter if you think he’s worth it or not, Dylan Larkin is going to command a pretty huge return. Here are some potential deals I think a trade for Larkin could be worked around.

• Panthers: Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaege, 2026 1st round pick
• Wild: Danila Yurov, Charlie Stramel, 1st round picks
• Golden Knights: Dorofeyev + ??

More to Read

Detroit Red Wings With the Most Trade Value

An Early Look at Simon Edvinsson’s Next Contract