What Should Simon Edvinsson’s Extension Look Like?

With two seasons in the books, Edvinsson’s career as a whole has been pretty solid to this point. There are varying opinions on whether he should rise, fall, or stay the same in a re-draft of the 2021 class. Generally, though, even doubters can agree that Edvinsson has become a competent two-way defenceman who can comfortably log big minutes.

In terms of raw production, Edvinsson’s numbers stayed about the same. He scored 9 goals this season compared to the 7 he recorded last season, though he recorded 25 points instead of the 30 points he had last season. Though, the small gap in points can be explained at least in part by Simon Edvinsson missing 10 games this season.

Offensively, even if Simon Edvinsson only improves incrementally for the rest of his career, his value as a defenceman who can produce ~30 points at even strength without strong offensive support is worth a serious payday. Though there have been significant stretches of defensive issues.

This season, Simon Edvinsson’s underlying numbers haven’t been promising. Edvinsson’s defensive partner, Moritz Seider, recorded the third-highest defensive net rating in the NHL, according to hockeystatcards.com. Each defenceman in the top 10 had their partner finish in the top 50 in terms of defensive net rating, except Moritz Seider and Connor Murphy (who I couldn’t find a consistent enough partner for due to his changing of teams). Simon Edvinsson finished 66th.

It makes sense even compared to the eye test that has seen Simon Edvinsson have stretches of bad play. Noticeable stretches of the season saw Edvinsson struggling to make the right decision in all three zones. Out of the Olympic break was an especially difficult time for Edvinsson. While it isn’t uncommon for young defencemen to struggle with game sense early in their careers, it was a question about Edvinsson coming out of the draft.

All in all, Edvinsson has shown that he’s on pace to become an even strength beast at both ends for the Red Wings, especially if he can refine some parts of his game. Though, without being a fixture on the power play and being the second best player on his pair by a wide margin, it questions how high his ceiling will truly be.

Comparing Similar Contracts

Fortunately for Detroit, plenty of players with comparable skill sets to Simon Edvinsson recently signed new deals that have created a pretty easy comparison for a potential Edvinsson deal.

I think there are a few things that I need to point out before we continue. The first being, not all of these guys are the same type of defenceman. Luke Hughes and Lane Hutson certainly aren’t paid for the same reason that LaCombe and Edvinsson would be. The second being, each of these guys is their team’s number one defenceman, whereas Edvinsson isn’t Detroit’s. And finally, Simon Edvinsson doesn’t get power play time while these guys do.

So, should Edvinsson get more than these guys due to the rising cap? I lean probably not. Pat Brisson represents both Hughes and LaCombe as well as some of the NHL’s biggest stars. If Brisson couldn’t convince New Jersey or Anaheim to pay up due to the rising cap, it leads to me to believe General Managers are still using dollar value to negotiate. If that’s the case, there isn’t a coherent argument for Edvinsson to make more than these guys.

But Detroit is going into the offseason with the second-smallest projected cap hit in the NHL. Not to mention, the Red Wings can’t afford to lose Edvinsson, and they made it clear during the Quinn Hughes saga how much he meant to the team. Simon Edvinsson and agent J.P. Barry could take advantage of circumstances rather than trends and get Edvinsson a bigger payout.

I do think Mo Seider’s number is important in all of this. Like it or not, it means something to be the highest-paid player on your team. Simon Edvinsson making more than Mo Seider would be the NHL equivalent of Robin getting more screen time than Batman. There aren’t any teams in the NHL I could find that signed a player to a contract who wasn’t a top five player on the team. Inherited contracts, I think, are a little different.

The Verdict (One Year Later)

Maybe there’s some personal bias here, but I think I stand with my take from a year ago. Simon Edvinsson should not exceed the internal cap hit set by Dylan Larkin or the defensive mark set by Moritz Seider. He has not proven to be better than the players on the team around him or his peers on other teams that took similar contracts from teams in similar positions.

Simon Edvinsson is a good player, that’s why he’s going to make some serious money, but I think it would be a disservice to Seider and Larkin to have Simon Edvinsson be the one to break the internal cap ceiling.

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