What will Nicholas Robertson receive in arbitration?

Nicholas Robertson is the only RFA remaining who still has arbitration scheduled. All of the other 10 RFAs scheduled for arbitration around the league were able to reach a deal with their respective teams. For the Toronto Maple Leafs, Robertson and contract disputes are nothing new.

Last season, Robertson was publicly disappointed about his usage and wanted to be traded. It wasn’t until September 10, 2024 that Robertson signed a one-year, $875K AAV contract and entered training camp. However, similar to the 2023–24 season, Robertson demonstrated an ability to score despite the limited minutes. How will arbitration go for Robertson? Let’s take a look.

The curious case of Robertson

Given how contract negotiations went last year, I think there’s no surprise that this time it is trending towards ending up in arbitration. There seems to be a clear difference in valuation; Robertson likely thinks he deserves consistent playing time, whereas the Leafs view Robertson as a growing player.

Robertson’s biggest asset is his shot. He has an NHL shot, and no one is disputing that. He scored 14 goals and 13 assists for 27 points in the 2023–24 season, and scored 15 goals and seven assists for 22 points last season. This drop-off in production can likely be explained by the changes in the team system after introducing a new coach.

Sheldon Keefe coached more of a rush and possession system, whereas Craig Berube focuses on dump-and-chase and solid defensive structure. The latter is Robertson’s biggest criticism. However, to Robertson’s credit, he has improved his defensive game last year under Berube.

However, on a line with Bobby McMann and Max Domi for the majority of last season, the line was noticeably hemmed in and not as defensively responsible as one would want. While they scored a lot of goals, these goals are worth nothing if you get scored on frequently.

The other aspect, or lack thereof, is playoff performance. It seems like every year, we wonder if Robertson should be slotted into a playoff lineup. In 13 career playoff games, Robertson has two goals and one assist for three points. Notably, zeros across the board in the six playoff games in 2023–24 and one goal and one assist in the three playoff games last year.

Not exactly a stellar performance from a goal scorer. No doubt his defence and lack of playoff performances are his biggest criticisms heading into arbitration.

What will Nicholas Robertson get in arbitration?

What Robertson will get in arbitration, assuming the case makes it to arbitration, is anyone’s guess. There are also not too many worthy comparables. 

Players like new Leaf Nicolas Roy ($3M) or Winnipeg Jet’s Alex Iafallo ($3.66M) also scored 15 goals last season. However, they also had many more assists and a track record of production. In Roy’s case, he scored 15 goals and 16 assists for 31 points. Roy also has four seasons where he produced 30 points or more. Roy can also play centre, which is more valuable, and can kill penalties.

In Iafallo’s case, he scored 15 goals and 16 assists for 31 points. Like Roy, Iafallo has a track record of production, scoring 30 points or more in six seasons. Iafallo can also kill penalties.

To clarify, these players are in their 30s, can do more than Robertson, and are not RFAs. So these are not the best comparables. But it may give some indication of a possible “ceiling” in this round of negotiation, and Robertson has not shown he’s close to matching this level.

One player linked to Robertson’s camp as being used as a comparable is the New York Islanders’ forward Maxim Tsyplakov. Tysplakov is three years older than Robertson and but has slightly better production with 10 goals and 35 points in his first NHL season last year. His $2.25M contract is likely what Robertson is targeting.

The sticking point is that Robertson likely feels he is worth more than what the Leafs are currently offering him. But I don’t think Robertson is going to get a big payday.

According to the arbitration rules, the party that did not elect arbitration can ask for a one or two-year deal. If the player is awarded $4.85M, the Leafs can walk away. I don’t think there’s any concern that Robertson will be awarded this much. But if so, I think the Leafs would definitely walk away, making Robertson a UFA.

I can see Robertson being awarded an $1–2.5M AAV. Whether Robertson is awarded a one or two-year deal, I think the Leafs will gladly take that. Robertson can still be a valuable player for the Leafs, and regardless, is still an RFA after. The Leafs are in no rush and have all of the control. 

Where does Robertson fit?

Perhaps another sticking point is that Robertson thinks his skillset is better suited for a top-six role. Or at the very least deserves an extended opportunity in the top-six. However, if this is the case, who is he swapping with? 

Certainly not Matthew Knies or William Nylander. Likely not newcomer Matias Maccelli, who has had excellent back-to-back seasons. Maccelli scored 49 points in 2022–23 and 57 points in 2023–24. While last season was a decline, only scoring eight goals and 10 assists for 18 points, he’s likely to have a bounce-back season.

That leaves Bobby McMann. McMann scored 20 goals and 14 assists for 34 points in 74 games. However, he was absent in the playoffs, only scoring three assists in 13 playoff games. McMann does play more of a power forward game, which is needed in the top-six. Unlike Robertson, McMann isn’t forced easily off the puck. 

It seems that if Robertson wants to continue his career with Toronto, he’s going to have to force the coaching staff’s hand to play him higher in the lineup. Regardless, to even get to this point, Robertson has to reinvent his game, and he seems reluctant to do so.

He is clearly a third-line player at the moment. Fortunately for Robertson, he has the scoring ability and an NHL-calibre shot. However, like most of his career, it’s his defensive game that needs to improve, and he needs to be stronger on the puck. He made strides in this regard last year, but still has a ways to go. If he can figure this out, he will be a valuable player commanding a more lucrative salary in the future.

I think we keep forgetting that Robertson still has a lot of development left in the tank. He’s only 23 years old, and injuries and the pandemic have hindered his development. There’s still a real chance Robertson can figure it out at the NHL level, and it’s nice to see that the Leafs are being patient with an RFA.

What do you think Robertson’s next contract will be? Leave a comment below!