Where draft picks play matters, at least a little

The Maple Leafs certainly seem to have an affinity for London Knights players when it comes to the NHL draft. Mitch Marner is certainly a prime example of that, while Easton Cowan is a more recent one. Nazem Kadri is another example of this as well. The Maple Leafs have done well with selecting highly-touted Knights players and a big part of that comes down to the Knights being an organization that NHL teams can trust to help with the development of their prospects as well.

There is also a benefit in proximity at play with OHL teams that enables a benefit of using the Maple Leafs’ resources to frequently check up on their prospects as well. As the 2025 NHL Draft approaches, it seems worthwhile to consider some things beyond talent and factor in who the draftees will be spending the majority of their time within the coming seasons.

University commitments

When looking at Junior A, USHL, or USA Hockey National Team Development Program players, one of the first things I look at after their numbers are which school the player is committing themselves to. I do this largely as a layman and don’t have a particularly keen knowledge of the NCAA but have certainly come to appreciate schools like Boston College, Boston University, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, University of Denver, University of Wisconsin, and University of North Dakota as places I’d be excited to see a Maple Leafs draft pick play.

In addition to these schools having strong competitive track records, they also have schedules filled with tougher opponents than some of the Ivy League teams in Division I, and in places like University of Michigan or University of Denver, there certainly seems to be a more structured system that players are expected to play inside that is encouraging for development, especially if the Leafs view their structure as one that mirrors the NCAA teams.

In contrast, if the Maple Leafs are gambling on a later round pick that is destined for the NCAA, the question of playing time begins to factor in. For junior players post-draft, it is likely they are going to be seeing around 20 minutes a night and playing in any situation an NHL club would hope to see that player in, but with the NCAA there aren’t any guarantees that the player that was just drafted will be in the lineup as a freshman let alone even getting 10 minutes a night. Some due diligence on the depth of NCAA organizations and probability of a freshman seeing icetime should be part of what factors into later round picks of players heading the college route. Considering the abundance of college free agents and the possibility that late round picks who did pan out later on might choose to go to free agency anyway, it seems like a risk to be wise to.

The haves and have-nots of the CHL (and other Junior leagues)

The London Knights have already been touched on and they are an organization run as well as any team outside the NHL — and possibly better than some in it. They turn a profit, they have resources, and they have experts working with their players. Teams like the Knights, the Oshawa Generals, Soo Greyhounds, Brandon Wheat Kings, and Kamloops Blazers have all shown that they having staying power and attract top tier coaching talent to their organizations. There are certainly others that fit this bill as well but there are also others that seem to be perpetually lost in the woods. If you are looking outside the CHL, the USHL has the Chicago Steel, Canadian Junior-A hockey has teams like the Brooks Bandits or Penticton Vees that standout as a cut above their competition.

There is also something to be said for these top junior teams already having identified the prospects as players who will have the talent to help them win that serve as an additional endorsement or NHL scouts.

Beyond those listed above there are teams like the Calgary Hitmen and Edmonton Oil Kings that benefit from an NHL ownership group, play in an NHL arena, and benefit NHL organizations as being easy check-in locations with their prospects throughout their post draft years in the CHL. When you consider how much putting on muscle matters post draft, players having access to NHL-level gym facilities is a nice perk as well.

The European pro advantage

Much like playing time in NCAA, the playing time for draftees in Europe is immediately going to be a sticking point. There is also something to be said for how it is difficult to find teams in Europe that play a style that mirrors what works in North America. That said, there is the big advantage of having a 18-year old draft pick immediately being measured against in their prime 27-year old pros.

There are plenty of different leagues with varying levels of talent and varying levels of parity, so it once again feels like a bit of a crapshoot on whether selecting a player from certain clubs makes sense or not. There are bad teams that will give NHL draft picks time on their elite league team right away but might not have the best resources to develop the player further. Or there are teams like SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL which is a highly funded organization, but the player gets five minutes a night and only plays half the season. Or they potentially stay stuck in the junior or minor team tiers of the organization.

The perfect balance of pro-level competition, well-resourced organization with strong coaching, and available ice time is likely a tough balance to find in a player intent on staying overseas but it’s worth noting that the Leafs selected four overseas players in the last draft and only one immediately came to North America. Of the three that remained, only one saw a few games that country’s highest league of hockey.

Talent vs. development potential

The mantra is always that you take the best player available and that oversimplification is obviously true. It also doesn’t mean a lot because different teams value different things and while I’m sure the best player available is meant to mean most talented player, factors position, style of play, and yes, who they play (or will play) for should be part of considering what makes someone the best player available.