Where Ducks Projected Top Centre Fits Among NHL Elite

Read about Leo Carlsson’s production, analytics, and trajectory compared to NHL stars Aleksander Barkov and Mika Zibanejad — plus what it means for his next contract.

How Leo Carlsson Stacks Up Against Comparable NHL Stars

Leo Carlsson isn’t just another promising young forward — he’s a centre drafted second overall, sharing that distinction with Florida Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov. With his entry-level deal set to expire in 2026, Carlsson’s place among the league’s top pivots is becoming a pressing topic for the Anaheim Ducks.

This season provided another glimpse into where Carlsson is now, where he could go, and how he stacks up against established NHL stars like Barkov and Mika Zibanejad. The comparisons don’t just shape perception — they will help determine his next contract.

Leo Carlsson Current Performance

Carlsson’s 2024–25 campaign featured 20 goals and 25 assists in 76 games. His 5-on-5 relative numbers (+2.20 CF%, +1.70 DFF%) indicate Anaheim controls more of the play with him on the ice. HockeyStatCards data places him slightly above average offensively (+0.4) and a step below defensively (-0.9).

JFresh’s WAR model rates him in the 86th percentile, fuelled by elite finishing (83rd percentile) and strong power-play work (80th percentile). Playmaking remains an area for improvement, with a low 1st-assists rate (21st percentile).

The trend lines also tell an important story. Carlsson started the year with a negative net rating, bottoming out in December before steadily improving in the second half. That trajectory is what gives Anaheim hope he can eventually be mentioned in the same breath as Barkov and Zibanejad.

Leo Carlsson Comparables

Two established NHL stars provide natural benchmarks for Carlsson’s game and potential.

1. Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – According to JFresh, Zibanejad is Carlsson’s closest stylistic match. Zibanejad thrives as a dual threat — capable of scoring 20+ goals and dishing 40+ assists — but is not a perennial Selke contender. His $8.5M AAV contract, signed at age 28, reflects top-line offensive value without elite defensive metrics.

2. Aleksander Barkov (Florida Panthers) – Also a second-overall pick, Barkov represents the two-way gold standard. His Selke Trophy win and $10M AAV contract signed at age 26 came after proving himself as an all-situations force. Barkov’s profile shows elite contributions in both offence (+8.1) and defence (+8.1).

Comparison Table (2024-2025 Season)

Contract Implications for Leo Carlsson

Pat Verbeek’s track record as Ducks GM suggests he favours bridge deals for young players who haven’t fully established their ceiling. A short-term extension in the $6.5M–$7.5M AAV range would fit this approach, giving Anaheim time to see if Carlsson’s trajectory is more Zibanejad or Barkov. According to the Athletic, Carlsson’s current value is around the $5M AAV range.

The rising NHL salary cap will also be a factor. For Carlsson, a bridge deal now could set him up for a massive long-term payday when he’s in his mid-20s, especially if he develops into an elite two-way centre.

Leo Carlsson’s Road to Elite Status

Carlsson’s path resembles the early years of both Zibanejad and Barkov: flashes of high-end skill, stretches of inconsistency, and steady improvements in underlying play-driving numbers. The offensive talent is already there — few 20-year-old centres combine his size, shot, and finishing touch.

The next step is rounding out his defensive game. Barkov’s value comes from suppressing elite opponents, tilting the ice in his team’s favour, and still producing offensively. If Carlsson can close that defensive gap while maintaining his scoring touch, he’ll be a legitimate $10M+ centre in his next long-term deal.

For now, Anaheim holds the cards. They can commit big early or take the bridge route. Either way, Carlsson’s peers make one thing clear — his ceiling is among the NHL’s most valuable centres.