Why Pontus Holmberg shouldn’t be the odd man out for the Maple Leafs

Depth is a beautiful thing. Don’t get me wrong, it is no substitute for high end talent, but the Leafs heading into the playoffs with a number of potential configurations in their bottom six forward group to tailor their matchup against their opponents is a good thing. At the heart of that customization is Pontus Holmberg, who is the next Leafs player to fall into the “jack of all trades, master of none” category. Holmberg’s skill set and ability to be whatever Craig Berube needs him to be is his path to being a playoff regular, it just remains to be seen where the best place to start Holmberg will be.

When looking at Holmberg’s numbers for this season, there is absolutely one that stands out, his drawn penalties. Holmberg is sitting at 27 drawn penalties with a nine penalty lead over the next closest Leaf, Matthew Knies. Holmberg has drawn as many penalties as Auston Matthews and John Tavares combined, and the closest member of the Core Four behind Holmberg is Mitch Marner with 16 penalties. League wide, Holmberg sits 9th in the league, but only Nico Hischier  has a better penalty differential, having taken two fewer penalties than Holmberg.

Holmberg drawing penalties at this rate points to a couple of things. He controls the puck when he’s on the ice and getting the puck away from him isn’t easy. Both of these attributes certainly add value to the Leafs lineup as puck control outside the top two lines remains a challenge for the Maple Leafs. Include the fact that Holmberg’s presence on the ice is also likely to create a potential power play for the Leafs and it’s hard to argue that Pontus doesn’t bring more to the table than most of the remaining supporting cast.

If drawing penalties isn’t enough reason to keep Holmberg in the lineup, there is something to be said for his success rate in suppressing offence. While shot attempts (CA/60) might be higher with Holmberg on the ice, Holmberg has strong relative results in both goals against and expected goals against when he’s on the ice compared to the rest of the Leafs. Holmberg is a sound positional player and that is a big part of those numbers.

The question is are drawing penalties and suppressing chances at 5v5 what the Leafs are valuing most and can they get that from other players. Holmberg’s complete stat line doesn’t make him a lock as a regular in the Leafs lineup at full health:

Holmberg has been a somewhat frequent penalty kill but has the worst GA/60 on the penalty of any Leafs forward except Scott Laughton.

Holmberg is a capable centre but his 47% success rate in the faceoff dot make him unreliable for defensive zone starts.

Holmberg has shown an ability to get under the skin of opponents and not shy away from physical play but his 33 hits point to him being less likely to throw a hit compared to any other Leafs bottom six option other than Max Domi.

Of Holmberg’s 15 points, six of his nine assists are secondary and three of his goals are empty netters, leaving him with a 2% 5v5 shooting percentage. Pontus isn’t going to provide secondary offence but the high number of empty net goals does show Craig Berube’s trust in him Holmberg playing important defensive zone minutes in a close game.

In the season-to-date, Holmberg has played over 100 5v5 minutes with seven different forwards. William Nylander has been the most frequent linemate, followed by John Tavares, but Bobby McMann, David Kampf, Max Domi, Steven Lorentz, and Nick Robertson were also in the mix. There has been little appetite so far to put Scott Laughton with Pontus Holmberg as they have just combined for five minutes of icetime so far.

Production-wise it probably isn’t surprising that the best results have come with William Nylander and John Tavares, and Holmberg does have something to add as the defensive conscience of that trio. What is perhaps most encouraging is that Holmberg has been the best linemate for Max Domi at keeping the puck away from the Leafs goaltenders,and might be a strong option to mitigate the risk that comes with having players like Domi or Robertson on the ice. The trade off being that their offence significantly dropped when playing with Holmberg, so you have to ask what the point is if you aren’t getting their greatest strength out of them.

Heading into the playoffs there is a tendency to lean towards safety and the fairly evenly matched Atlantic Division it is safe to say that powerplay opportunities will be important and because of that you’ll want Holmberg in the lineup. The question is where and I’m not sure the Leafs and Craig Berube can or should provide an answer for that yet. Holmberg is a situational puzzle piece.

What does make sense is to continue to use Holmberg as the means to try new things in the lineup. Putting Pontus with Laughton might be the first step and seeing what they can get out of that duo together. It might also be interesting to see whether Holmberg and Jarnkrok can thrive together, perhaps in a defensively stingy line with either Lorentz or Kampf and play them against the opposition’s second line to see if they can suppress chances.

Holmberg’s success in both the AHL and especially the SHL playoffs feeds the assumption that he will be a Leaf that rises to the challenges come playoff time and that is something that has been largely absent from the lineup in previous seasons. His minus three showing against Boston last year might not match my optimism but asking him to centre Calle Jarnkrok and Nick Robertson might have played a role in that lack of success. Another year of NHL experience for both Holmberg and Robertson, as well as a healthier version of Calle Jarnkrok, combined with that line likely being utilized more as a fourth line option this year than a third line last year makes even running back a less than stellar line a potential upgrade. The fact that it was Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle, and David Pastrnak that were most frequently scoring against Holmberg is the reminder that his competition needs to fit the linemates he’s given to work with.

Data from Natural Stat Trick