Why the Leafs should pursue Matt Duchene in free agency

It will be a summer full of profound changes for the Toronto Maple Leafs, as they renovate their forward corps before the 2025-26 season begins. Mitch Marner is widely expected to test free agency, where he’ll have a number of suitors, which will inevitably free up some cap space for the Maple Leafs to re-tool their roster. With both goaltenders returning and six active defencemen under contract, there will be some reshuffling of the forward group, as the Maple Leafs firmly need to win now. Any notion of patience has completely expired.

Matt Duchene would be an excellent addition for the Maple Leafs and fits their contention timeline. Although it’s widely assumed that John Tavares will re-sign with the Maple Leafs, Duchene can be slotted into the top-six, either as the No. 2 centre, which would bump Tavares down to a third-line role that he’s overqualified for, or it’ll push Tavares onto the wing, where many feel his game is best suited at this stage of his career. In the seemingly unlikely event that Tavares signs elsewhere, there would be a clear vacancy in the 2C role, which Duchene would firmly claim.

Duchene is still producing well into his 30s and is coming off one of the best seasons of his careers, where he registered 30 goals and 82 points in 82 games for the Dallas Stars. He finished T-16th with 47 points at 5-on-5, sporting a plus-11 goal differential with a 51.4 percent share of the expected goals at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick. Duchene could also slot onto the power play, either in Tavares’ preferred role in the bumper, or as a replacement for Marner, who operated at the quarterback for large stretches of the 2024-25 campaign.

Daily Faceoff listed Duchene as the sixth-ranked free-agent entering this summer, with Marner in the top spot, and Tavares ranked fifth. Duchene is projected by AFP Analytics to receive a three-year contract worth $7.2 million annually, a figure the Maple Leafs could stomach, especially with the cap projected to rise. Tavares is projected to receive a three-year, $7.9 million contract although the AFP projection hasn’t accounted for the discounted rate he’s expected to sign for with the Maple Leafs. If the Maple Leafs retain Tavares, sign Duchene and then re-sign Matthew Knies to a long-term contract extension, setting up the 22-year-old as the bridge between the present and the future, it would constitute a stellar offseason for general manager Brad Treliving. Would it necessarily change the team’s DNA?

It really depends on how you view Duchene as a playoff performer: while he’s been a stellar scorer during the regular season, the veteran centre has recorded 13 goals and 37 points in 69 playoff games. Duchene has certainly had more individual playoff success, on the verge of reaching the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive years, but that may not be enough to constitute a culture change to a Maple Leafs team characterized by their supreme talent, which routinely underperforms in the postseason.

Duchene’s talent may be simply too alluring to pass on, especially if Marner and Tavares both walk. While the idea of running back the Core Four is untenable, this is still a Maple Leafs team that will be led by Auston Matthews and William Nylander, with another chance of genuinely competing for the Stanley Cup, if they find the right pieces to surround the core, along with a player who can command a game when the stakes are at their highest. It’s reasonable to suggest that the Maple Leafs may look to Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand or Patrick Kane, all of whom have won Stanley Cups, to change the DNA and culture of the team. Duchene will still replicate excellent top-six offence with a burning desire to win it all, and it would ensure that the Maple Leafs don’t take a major step back, in an attempt to take a seismic leap forward.