Why the red-hot Blues aren’t elite Stanley Cup contenders yet

The NHL schedule is 82 games long, but it produces mini seasons within that template, peaks and valleys during which teams can look like juggernauts or laughing stocks. That’s what makes the 2021-22 St. Louis Blues so fascinating.

Remember the floundering March 2022 Blues? They opened the month with four straight defeats and went 5-6-3. In 5-on-5 play for March, they were outscored 30-27, outshot 329-320 and outchanced 358-314. Goaltenders Ville Husso and Jordan Binnington delivered the league’s 27^th-best team save percentage for the month.

In April? They’ve become the St. Louis Gods. Since losing in overtime April 1, they’ve rattled off nine straight victories. In 5-on-5 play over that span, they’ve outscored their opponents 37-24. Their goal totals in nine April games: five, six, five, four, four, six, four, six, six, eight. Simply incredible. Around trade deadline day in late March, they looked like a team poised to limp into the playoffs and get shoved aside by a real contender. Now, the piping-hot Blues look as dominant as any team in the league. Their winning streak includes victories over the Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild (twice), Boston Bruins and Nashville Predators.

The Blues now own the NHL’s eighth-best points percentage at .671. They’ve ascended to the second-tier Stanley Cup contender group with includes the Calgary Flames, Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, New York Rangers, the Wild and the playing-possum Tampa Bay Lightning. But is it time to graduate the Blues into tier 1 alongside season-long powerhouses in the Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers?

The answer isn’t so simple. The Blues are having their way with the NHL in April according to the standings and the scoreboards, but the numbers under the hood suggest they’re not as dominant as they appear on the surface.

This team obviously has a ton going for it. The Blues now own the NHL’s No. 2 power play and No. 6 penalty kill. They possess incredible scoring depth, armed with seven 20-goal scorers and possibly finishing with nine if Robert Thomas and Ryan O’Reilly get two and three more goals, respectively. Eleven Blues have at least 40 points, and eight have 50 or more points. Stanley Cup-caliber teams these days roll three legitimate scoring lines, and the Blues absolutely qualify there. Vladimir Tarasenko, his shoulder finally feeling right, has enjoyed a massive bounce back season. Thomas has emerged as a truly dominant playmaker, ranking second in the NHL only to Johnny Gaudreau in primary assists per 60 minutes. Pavel Buchnevich likely has the Rangers wishing for a do-over on last offseason’s trade. After stumbling in March, Husso is 6-0-1 with a .924 SV% in April.

So do we thus anoint the Blues an apex predator in the Western Conference? Hold on. A big contributor to their massive hot streak this month is, well, luck. In 5-on-5 play this April, they’ve scored on a league-best 15.55 percent of their shots. They actually sit just 14^th in expected goals per 60. On the defensive side, with Husso and Binnington rebounding, they own the league’s 10^th-best save percentage this month. That’s masked the fact they have the second-worst expected goals against per 60. You read that right.

During the Blues’ incredible 9-0-1 April, their opponents hold a 514-400 edge in shot attempts. They’ve been outshot 299-238 and outchanced 260-233. They’ve been outshot in six of their nine wins during the streak and out-chanced in five.

Blues NHL ranks at 5-on-5 during their 9-0-1 April:

They’ve played some of the worst defensive hockey in the NHL this month and have graded out as average to below average in chance generation. The biggest contributing factors to their hot run: their ranks in these two 5-on-5 stats:

The Blues have plenty going for them. Their forward group is as deep as any in the NHL. They’re also showing firsthand that above-average goaltending can make a good team great. But they’re also showing some alarming tendencies under the hood. If their puck luck evaporates or their goalies slump, they could go cold, rather than hot, at the worst possible time.

Contender? Sure. Elite contender? Not yet. Not until they clean up their 5-on-5 defensive play.