Will Auston Matthews ever be 100% healthy?

As we can see in Table 1, his common injuries are to his wrist and the mysterious “upper-body”. We will never know until Matthews writes an autobiography in retirement what this upper-body injury is, or if it was several injuries. However, the speculation is that the upper-body injury is related to his back.

He will be 100% healthy this season… right?

After the injury-riddled 2024–25 season, which saw Matthews play only 67 games, fans were hoping Matthews would be 100% healthy to start the upcoming season. After all, his injury last season occurred in the preseason.

In a recent interview, Matthews said:

“My health is good. I feel a lot better. I think I took really good steps this offseason as far as that goes, and so I’m really happy with that progress and happy with where I’m at.”

Based on his comment, it doesn’t sound like Matthews will be 100% this upcoming season. Understandably, the team is tight-lipped on what the injury is. Are we going to see Matthews travel to Germany to see a specialist for treatment like last season?  Is the issue that it requires surgery, which will make him miss a full NHL season? It’s anyone’s guess.

It’s a bit frustrating from a fan perspective. The fans are the ones who buy the inflated tickets, concessions, and merchandise. Paying the “Toronto tax” to see a sub-optimal Matthews is not value for money. Last season, in particular, struck the ire of several fans because he was clearly playing injured and not playing well, leading up to the 4 Nations: Face-Off tournament. Yet, he was able to still represent Team USA.

Of course, it is unreasonable to expect a player to play healthy 100% of the time. But with Matthews, he not only misses time due to injury, but when he returns, he still looks injured. It is frustrating when this is your franchise centre. While it sounds like he will be healthier than last season based on his interview, it does not instill much confidence that he will be 100% to start the year.

A future where he’s never 100% again

Even missing several games, and noticeably playing hurt for a lot of the season, Matthews scored 33 goals and 45 assists for 78 points. Over an 82-game season, this works out to 40 goals and 55 assists for 95 points. 

However, is this worth $13.25M a year?

When Matthews signed his recent $13.25M x four-year contract extension in August 2023, several fans were upset at either the dollar amount, the term, or both. Especially when other stars around the league, such as Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl (before his extension), made less.

Not only made less, but they also performed at a superstar level in the playoffs, unlike Matthews. Matthews only has 26 goals and 33 assists for 59 points in 68 playoff games. For reference, Mikko Rantanen scored nine goals or 27% of Matthews’ career playoff goal total last playoffs alone.

I think as Leafs fans, we need to prepare for an unfortunate future where Matthews is never 100% again. If we frame it this way, then the four-year contract extension is a bit of a blessing. I have no doubt that he will re-sign after his contract expires in 2028. However, if his health further declines, the team has several options. 

The team can simply move on if a 31-year-old Matthews can no longer play as a first-line centre. Despite the injuries, this won’t likely be the case. He will still be an exceptional player well into his 30s. Whether the cap hit is as much of an increase as Matthews was banking on in 2023 remains to be seen. It could very well be a pay drop depending on how the next three years unfold.

Nevertheless, it does give management some flexibility in an unknown situation. Time will tell how the situation unfolds with the soon-to-be franchise goal leading captain. But one thing is certain: Matthews, whether healthy or injured, still has the responsibility to lead this team to a Stanley Cup.

1. Adapted from flashscore