Will Elias Pettersson ever be elite again?: Wagner’s Weekly

After a couple of quiet performances, Elias Pettersson finally came alive for Sweden at the 2026 Olympics, scoring two goals in a key preliminary round game against Slovakia.

Pettersson wasn’t exactly bad in Sweden’s previous two games against Italy and Finland; it’s more that he was inconsequential. With minimal ice time and just a single shot on goal in each game, Pettersson was awfully hard to notice through two games.

To be fair, Pettersson rang a post against Italy and was robbed of two other goals, one by an uncalled hook and one by a ridiculous save from Italian goaltender Damian Clara that injured Clara, taking him out of the game. And no one on Sweden looked good against Finland.

Pettersson has also been a key penalty killer for a Swedish squad that has only given up one power play goal through three games.

But Sweden needed more than that from Pettersson, and they finally got it against Slovakia.

Two goals for Pettersson in limited minutes

Pettersson broke a 2-2 tie late in the second period with a sneaky five-hole finish from a Filip Forsberg feed. Then he extended the lead midway through the third by banging home a backdoor pass from Lucas Raymond, a goal that stood up as the game winner.

Even as he tallied two goals — celebrating both with a passion we haven’t seen in some time — his scoring was more opportunistic than play-driving. He was taking advantage of the excellent play of his linemates more than creating opportunities for himself. He’s been far from a play-driver for Sweden.

None of this should be surprising to anyone who has watched Pettersson with the Vancouver Canucks in recent years, as he hasn’t exactly been a play-driver in Vancouver for some time. Expecting a drastic difference at the Olympics, even with better wingers than he has in Vancouver, is a stretch.

But there was a time when Pettersson did drive play at an elite level. It’s hard to remember after two years of struggles, but Pettersson was legitimately elite at one point. When he entered the league, people were name-dropping the likes of Pavel Datsyuk as comparable players. He was a point-per-game in his first visit to the playoffs in 2020. He put up 102 points in 2022-23 as a 24-year-old in 2022-23.

There was no need to look for signs of life back then, as his fans do now, seeking out moments that let them declare, “Elias Pettersson is back.” The flashes of excellence that show up from time to time used to be a base-level expectation for Pettersson.

Is there any chance Pettersson can get back to that level?

Finding a comparable player to Pettersson

That’s hard to say, because Pettersson’s fall-off has been pretty much unprecedented. He’s gone from consistent 30-goal seasons to falling short of a 20-goal pace, from point-per-game seasons to 0.70 points per game. Worse than that, he doesn’t look like a player going through a slump; this looks like his new normal.

Don’t get me wrong. There have been plenty of players come crashing down from some heady heights, but rarely from the heights Pettersson reached at his peak.

Also, plenty of elite players have had a disappointing or underwhelming season, but those players typically bounce back the following season, barring injury.

Pettersson hasn’t bounced back.

There hasn’t really been anyone else with a similar decline. You could point to Jonathan Huberdeau, but his fall off coincided with a move to a different team and came when he was 29, not 26.

Claude Giroux had a 93-point season at 24, then didn’t reach those heights again until a 102-point season at 30, but he never fell as far as Pettersson in the intervening years. Besides, his worst season came after offseason surgery.

To find another player who fell off like Pettersson, you have to look at Alexander Semin.

Semin was an elite talent, with exceptional skill and creativity. He saw the game in ways that few others could, creating chances for himself and his teammates, and finishing his chances with a blistering shot.

At 24, Pettersson and Semin had nearly identical point-per-game rates: Pettersson at 1.28, Semin at 1.27. They both followed that up with another season at above a point-per-game at 25.