Will Trent Frederic be an impact player for the Oilers during his eight-year contract?

Drafted 29th overall in the 2016 NHL draft, Frederic became a regular NHL player in the 2020-21 season. He primarily played as a fourth-line grinder that season, putting up just 5 points in 42 games, though spending a lot of time in the penalty box. But his production steadily increased over the next three years until his peak in 2023-24.

That season, Frederic produced 18 goals and 40 points in 82 games, averaging 2.1 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes. For context, the average NHL top-six forward produces roughly ~1.8-1.9 points per hour at 5-on-5; put differently, for three straight seasons from 2021-22 through 2023-24, Frederic’s production rates were that of a very solid second-liner. It should be noted that Frederic’s 5v5 production rates were superior to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in that span.

However, Frederic did see a significant dip in 2024-25 with Boston, with his production rate going down all the way to 1.02. He had just 15 points in 57 games. But, it should be noted that Frederic’s on-ice shooting percentage in 24-25 was just 6.38. Comparatively, it was at 10.3 percent in the prior two seasons in a very strong sample of 161 games. It’s quite reasonable to deduce that Frederic simply had some poor puck luck this past season.

In terms of advanced on-ice impacts, EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model ranks Frederic’s impact on generating even-strength scoring chances in the 66th percentile over the past three seasons, while his impact on suppressing scoring chances is in the 61st percentile. In other words, Frederic’s underlying impacts aren’t anything extraordinary, but he’s generally been a reliable two-way player with Boston.

Let’s take an even closer look at Frederic, diving into his microstats with Boston.

This graphic shows some fairly mixed results for Frederic. As a play-maker, Frederic ranks below average in primary shot assists and HD passes, though his overall scoring chance assist rate is quite solid. In terms of zone entries, Frederic is almost exactly league-average, while he has struggled quite a bit at zone exits. He’s had some trouble moving the puck out of his own end without turning it over in Boston.

Still, there are two key things to note that stand out on this graphic: the finishing efficiency and the forecheck pressure results.

For those who’ve followed my articles over the years, you should know how often I’ve mentioned that the Oilers are in desperate need of efficient finishers, players who can consistently capitalize on the chances they create. Lack of finishing has played a key role in many of Edmonton’s playoff losses over the past two years.

Fortunately, it seems that Frederic had been quite the efficient finisher in Boston. This, combined with his strong overall production rates from 2021-22 through 2023-24, suggests there is genuine potential for Frederic to be a very productive middle-six forward in Edmonton, especially if deployed correctly next to linemates that can consistently create more chances for him.

Furthermore, perhaps the best attribute of Frederic’s game is his physicality and tenacity, and it’s evident as his forecheck pressures per hour rate ranks in the 82nd percentile among all forwards. Frederic was consistently able to use his size and physicality to disrupt opposition breakouts and force turnovers in the offensive zone with Boston. So, although Frederic had some issues with getting pucks out in his own end, his excellent forechecking seems to outweigh it, as seen by his net above-average defensive impacts.

Now, what about Frederic’s playoff performance in Edmonton? Let’s take a closer look at that.

Frederic’s on-ice results in the postseason were quite solid, as he boasted a 59 percent goal share and a 51 percent expected goal share. But offensively, he mightily struggled. Frederic’s most notable performance came in Game 6 of the first round against the LA Kings, in which he had an assist and scored the game-winning (and ultimately series-winning) goal, but that game aside, he had just 2 points in 21 games. A large reason is that Frederic ranked as the worst play-maker among Edmonton’s forwards, ranking even behind Mattias Janmark in scoring chance assists per 60. His controlled entry rate was also quite poor.

However, Frederic’s defensive stats are another story. He was on-ice for a mere 1.2 goals against per hour, the lowest (i.e. best!) rate on the team. This is supported by his defensive microstats, as Frederic continued to be a strong forechecker, while also being much better at moving the puck out of the zone with control in Edmonton compared to Boston.

Of course, it must also be mentioned that Frederic was coming off a high-ankle sprain, an injury that many players often take considerable time to fully recover from (unless your name is Leon Draisaitl). I don’t think Frederic was at 100% at all in the games that he played in Edmonton, and his offensive production should be much better than what we saw in the 2025 playoffs.

All things considered, I believe there is potential for Frederic to be a useful player for the Oilers moving forward, possessing some specific skills that can be greatly beneficial to the team. Frederic is also quite versatile, as he’s primarily played as a winger, but he did mention that he’d like to play more time at centre. He could spend considerable time at both 3C and even 2LW next to Leon Draisaitl this upcoming season; it should be noted that Draisaitl has historically played exceptionally well next to tenacious forecheckers, and so there is a possibility that Frederic can be a nice stylistic fit for him.

As for the term, there is indeed a risk in giving Frederic eight years, which is too much in my opinion. I’m not a fan of giving any non-elite players the maximum contract length and/or an NMC, especially without a major discount. It’s also risky considering that Frederic did not decisively prove anything in Edmonton; yes, he played through an injury, but the fact remains that he’s far from a sure bet, which is the concern with giving him eight years. That being said, the AAV isn’t substantially high, especially considering the rising cap-hit, and after his NMC for the first four years, his cap-hit can be easily movable. The potential buyout cost isn’t terrible either.

For Frederic to be fully worth the contract, I would expect ~35+ points per season combined with strong forechecking and defensive impacts moving forward. Granted, if he stays healthy, that could be a reasonable expectation based on his track record.