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Hockey 2026 Olympics Milano, Finland (The Hockey Writers)

How Team Finland Can Win the 2026 Winter Olympics

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Andrew Epps | Last updated Jan 12, 2026 4:17 PM ET

Finland’s Olympic team is good enough to win the tournament, but they will need to play a certain way to beat Canada, the United States, and Sweden en route to gold. The conversation around the Finnish roster has landed in the same place: the top names are there, and Aleksander Barkov’s absence changes the ceiling from “gold is plausible” to “medaling is the clean target.”

NHL.com’s projected lines show what Finland is trying to do. They have two scoring lines with two-way upside, a third line built to take hard matchups, and then a fourth line that can keep the puck safe. On the back end, it starts with Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, and the goalie depth chart begins with Juuse Saros.

The Power Ranking, Using 2025-26 Form and Depth

1. Team Canada

Canada’s advantage is that its second line has first-line talent. NHL.com’s projection has Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon driving separate lines, and in a short tournament, that usually reads like a math problem. If you protect the slot for a shift, you still have to do it again immediately, and then again after that. Canada also tends to punish the one mistake Finland cannot afford to make: a soft puck to the middle between the blue lines. Against elite pace, that is not just a turnover; it is a quality chance against.

2. Team USA

The U.S. is the most direct matchup problem for Finland. Their roster is built on fast wingers, aggressive defense that holds lines, and enough skill to turn one broken clearing attempt into a second and third look. NHL.com’s projection highlights that fact, led by Quinn Hughes and Charlie McAvoy. If Finland is clean on retrievals, they can beat the U.S. If they are loose on retrievals, they will spend whole periods defending without a change.

3. Team Sweden

Sweden’s game is stylistically the closest to Finland’s, but with more puck-moving volume on the back end. NHL.com projects a blue line led by Victor Hedman and Rasmus Dahlin, with Gustav Forsling and Erik Karlsson in the next wave. That matters because Sweden can win without trading chances. They can win by owning exits and entries until the game turns into one long defensive shift for the opponent.

4. Team Finland

Ilta-Sanomat’s coverage of The Athletic’s team-by-team look is blunt: Finland has NHL stars, but they are still a step behind Canada, the U.S., and Sweden, and that’s because of Barkov’s injury.

That matches their roster construction. Finland has enough top-end skill to win a single game against anyone, but they have fewer options to solve matchup issues over a full tournament.

Finland’s Clear Advantages

High-end finishers and drivers. Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz can score against any defense. Sebastian Aho is still the cleanest “win a shift” center Finland has in the group. NHL.com’s Finland projection builds around those players.

A real top defensive pairing. Heiskanen-Lindell is the foundation. If Finland pushes their game, it will start with the top pair controlling the middle of the rink and getting the puck moving north without drama.

A third line that can do real work. Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell are built for the Olympic minutes that decide tournaments – the shifts that start in the defensive zone and end with the other team changing.

The Two Holes Finland Has to Patch

Center Matchups Without Barkov

Finnish news coverage is harsh: Barkov’s absence is the key reason Finland’s outlook gets downgraded. Against Canada and the U.S., the key will be defensive-zone faceoffs when they are protecting a one-goal lead. Finland can still win those games, but they will need Aho and Lundell to take on more heavy starts, and for the wingers to play like third defensemen below the puck.

The One Surprise Pick and The Blue Line Ceiling

Mikko Lehtonen was a surprising selection as the only non-NHL player on a top team’s roster. Urho Vaakanainen is also the lone Finnish defenseman who played in the NHL this season and did not make the team.

That is not about Lehtonen being “wrong.” It is about what Finland is prioritizing. They are betting on structure, not extra creativity. That can work, but it makes Heiskanen even more important as the single best outlet and transporter on the roster.

The Olympic Rink Story Is Not Background Noise

One of the most useful Finnish reads came from Milan itself. Ilta-Sanomat’s Santa Giulia report, built around Finnish forward Mikael Saha playing in the arena’s first official game, describes a still-unfinished venue, thin ice early, and a rink that feels tight, especially behind the goal line and through the neutral zone. It also noted that NHL personnel have been on site, including ice experts, because the larger concern is ice durability when three games are played in a day.

A tighter rink can help Finland if they stay connected. Less space means fewer slow regroup possessions for opponents and more contested touches. It can also punish careless changes and soft clears. That is not a small detail in an elimination game.

How Finland Can Beat The Big Three Anyway

Finland’s path is narrow, but it is real.

Situations That Give Finland The Best Medal Path

Lock the middle and force point volume. Finland can live with outside shots if they own rebounds and sticks. They cannot rely on seam plays through the dots against Canada or the U.S.
Treat line three as a matchup tool, not a rest line. Finland’s best national teams win because their third line can start in the defensive zone and still get the puck out cleanly.
Special teams discipline. Finland’s fastest path to losing a quarterfinal match is taking unnecessary penalties against teams that can run two power-play units.
Goaltending has to be above average, not just adequate. Saros’ 2025-26 save percentage sits at .897 on NHL EDGE.

Finland can still medal if Saros is hot for two games, but if he is merely “normal,” Finland’s margin is much thinner, especially without Barkov.

Finally, this is one Finnish readers keep circling. Ilta-Sanomat’s wider national-team commentary has not been kind to the federation’s handling of the Olympic rollout and the Pennanen situation. It is a messy backdrop, and it adds noise to a tournament that already punishes distraction.

Finland does not need calm headlines. They need calm shifts. If Heiskanen controls exits, Aho and Lundell absorb the hard starts, and Rantanen and Hintz finish the few clean looks they get, Finland can still drag Canada, the U.S., or Sweden into the kind of game where one bounce decides a semifinal.