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June 07, 2024: Stanley Cup Final Game 1: Look for a big night from Sam Bennett

The Stanley Cup Final starts Saturday, and you should be tuning in if you haven't been following yet. To make your viewing experience even better, Yardbarker's Griffin Carroll has a strong betting recommendation for you. 

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Stanley Cup Final Game 1: Look for a big night from Sam Bennett

Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett. Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Yeah, we're definitely a bit frustrated that Luka Doncic couldn't get us just four more PRA yesterday. That was a tough loss, seeing him come out of a blowout with five minutes left. Keep in mind Jayson Tatum rebounds and Derrick White threes for Sunday's Game 2, we still love both those reads.

The Stanley Cup Final starts Saturday, and you should be tuning in if you haven't been following yet, as this matchup has the storylines, the stars, and the explosive offenses that should make it one heck of a watch. 

Get your tickets for the Sam Bennett train Saturday

Sam Bennett over 2.5 SOG (+114 DraftKings)

Florida's Sam Bennett has come alive for the Panthers, and he's a major reason they're sitting here on the cusp of their first ever Stanley Cup. 

Since he returned from injury in Round 2, Bennett has logged 5+ shot attempts in nine straight games, and more recently, those attempts are more often than not in the six or seven range.

That is important to note, as when Bennett hits the 5+ attempts threshold, he goes over 2.5 shots on goal at an 82% rate over the past three seasons.

Florida has been one of the best shooting teams for a few years now, and they should own the shots edge on Saturday at home, and Bennett should get in on the fun.

Sam Bennett point (+115 ESPN BET)

Shots aren't enough, we need to grab Bennett's point too. He has a goal in three straight games, so this very well could come in that form, but we'll be a touch conservative for Game 1.

Bennett had six points last round, and he's recorded seven in his past four against the Edmonton Oilers. We can't ignore the production and that the Florida forward is heating up at the right time. 

All abboooaaarrddd.


In the news ...

Return of Kristaps Porzingis sparks Celtics, Boston takes Game 1 by 18 points — Two things became evident immediately last night. One, Kristaps Porzingis is a massively important player for this Boston Celtics team, and two, the Cs were winning the game. Boston built up a big first-quarter lead thanks to 11 Porzingis points and two blocks, and yes, we have may have quickly overreacted and bet Porzingis to win Finals MVP at +1500, what about it? The Celtics ended up winning 107-89, choosing to let Luka Doncic get his points but shutting down his passing lanes to get his teammates involved. That's an interesting game plan to consider, and it may be wise to parlay Doncic's points over with his assists under in Game 2. Dallas will look to be more competitive on Sunday and steal a game on the road, they're currently 7-point underdogs.

Dan Hurley set to meet with Los Angeles Lakers — After the bombshell yesterday that the Lakers were ramping up conversations with back-to-back national champion Dan Hurley of UConn, it seems things are progressing forward. Reports indicate Hurley is traveling to California to meet with Lakers leadership, and the team is "eager to close" on a deal. Expect to hear news on this front one way or the other by early next week at the latest.

Belmont Stakes on Saturday — The third and final leg of the Triple Crown is Saturday, with the Belmont Stakes, held at Saratoga this year and next because of track renovation at Belmont Park. There will be no Triple Crown winner this year, with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan coming in second at the Preakness. The current favorite is Sierra Leone at 3-1, followed by Preakness winner Seize the Grey at 5-1. Considering this race is a bit shorter than usual because of the relocation, a favorite like Sierra Leone may be worth backing considering there's no need for a horse to go the distance, but rather get off to a strong start.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Saturday: Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers 

With nearly a week off, expect a sluggish start on both ends. We do believe this series is going to open up big time for scoring, but Game 1 isn't that night. Roll with under 5.5 as both sides figure things out and get back into the groove.

Latest Odds:  -105
2 Sunday: Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics 

Boston looked absolutely dominant on Thursday, and we're going right back to them on Sunday night. With Porzingis back, this team is virtually unguardable, with 5+ players who can all score in a variety of ways. That is tough to defend, and if Luka Doncic isn't able to create through his passes, this Mavericks core just doesn't stack up. Back Boston -7 in Game 2.

Latest Odds:  -110
3 Chris Sale over 6.5 Ks 

Sale has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this season for the Braves, and this line feels like a relative bargain worth jumping on. Sale is over this line in eight of 11 starts, and his advanced stats have him in the upper 10th percentile for every key pitcher statistic. The Nationals are fanning at the sixth-highest rate against LHP over the past month, so Sale should be in a for a solid outing.

Latest Odds:  +110
4 Aaron Civale under 4.5 Ks 

We'll gladly fade an arm when they draw this Baltimore Orioles lineup. Baltimore hits righties at the fourth-strongest rate, and they don't often K, owning the fourth-lowest strikeout rate over the last month. Civale just started against Baltimore, striking out only three, and we're going to have to fade him here tonight against this line.

Latest Odds:  +115
5 Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury

Minnesota is the far better team here, owning the league's third-best net-rating and second-best defensive-rating. Phoenix, meanwhile, has the third-worst defense in the WNBA, which explains their bottom-four net-rating. As such, back the Lynx with confidence at -4.5.
Friday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Lynx
-4.5 (-105) -215 > 161.5 (-112)
Mercury
+5 (-112) +185 < 161.5 (-112)

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