Yardbarker

The Bark Bets Newsletter

August 27, 2024: MLB HR props: Serving up taters on Dinger Tuesday

Happy Dinger Tuesday to all who celebrate. Even though FanDuel doesn't recognize the weekly holiday anymore, that won't stop us from mining for gold in the home run prop market with a full slate of MLB games on deck.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
Subscribe  |  Read in Browser

MLB HR props: Serving up taters on Dinger Tuesday

Colorado Rockies first base Michael Toglia (4) and third base Ryan McMahon (24) celebrate a victory. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Dinger Tuesday to all who celebrate. Even though FanDuel doesn't recognize the weekly holiday anymore, that won't stop us from mining for gold in the home run prop market with a full slate of MLB games on deck. Let's set the table and prepare a HR feast for Dinger Tuesday, shall we?

Dinger Tuesday platter

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

We don't need to convince you that the mile-high air at Coors Field presents friendly conditions for home runs, but we're also getting a boost from strong winds projected to blow out to left field during the game. Marlins starter Roddery Munoz has a 13.1 percent barrel rate, a 45.0 percent hard-hit rate and a 31.9 percent fly-ball rate this year, so he's the ideal pitcher to fade at Coors Field. 

Main course: Michael Toglia (+420 FanDuel)
Toglia is a great target to ride this helping wind over the left-field wall. The Rockies first baseman has a 54.5 percent hard-hit rate, a 45.5 percent fly-ball rate and a .765 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. He also has a .618 xSLG and a 56.1 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seam fastballs, which is the pitch that gets Munoz in the most trouble. 

Side dish: Brendan Rodgers (+560 FD)
Rodgers isn't as much of a fly-ball hitter as Toglia, but he surely can get one in the air against Munoz. All 10 of Rodgers's home runs this season have flown out to left or left-center field.

New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

If Patrick Corbin is on the mound, you can guarantee we're looking for ways to fade him. The Washington Nationals southpaw ranks in the third percentile in hard-hit rate (47.8 percent) and xERA (5.82) and the 31st percentile in barrel rate (8.6 percent). Hitting conditions at Nationals Park look perfect with hot temperatures and a helping wind projected to blow out to left-center.  

Main course: Juan Soto (+340 FD)
We would love to bet Aaron Judge in this matchup, but +146 for a home run prop is never worth betting. Instead, we'll "settle" for Soto at +340. Soto is smashing left-handed pitching this month with a .818 slugging percentage, a 50.0 percent hard-hit rate and a league-high six homers.  

Side dish: DJ LeMahieu (+900 FD)
We can hear you snickering from behind the screen, but hear us out first. LeMahieu has faced Corbin 61 times in his career. He's batting .393 and slugging .821 with six home runs and only four strikeouts against the lefty. With that track record, he's worth a sprinkle at a huge price.


In the news ...

CeeDee Lamb agrees to $136 million contract with the Cowboys — Dallas Cowboys fans (and fantasy football managers), rejoice. Lamb's holdout is finally over. On Monday, Lamb and the Cowboys agreed to a four-year, $136 million contract to make him the second-highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history. The deal includes a $38 million signing bonus and $100 million in guaranteed money. Lamb is +800 to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.

Caitlin Clark dazzles again as Fever continue to stack up wins — The Indiana Fever knocked off the Atlanta Dream, 84-79, on Monday night to improve to 14-16 and 3-1 since the break. Clark was spectacular once again, racking up 19 points, seven assists, seven rebounds, two steals and four three-pointers. It was her 21st game with at least 15 points and five assists, which is the most in WNBA history for a single season. Clark also drained her 85th three-pointer of the year to tie Rhyne Howard's rookie record. The Fever are +3500 to win the WNBA championship.

Packers trade for Malik Willis — The Green Bay Packers clearly weren't thrilled with their quarterback depth behind Jordan Love, so they made a move to change that. On Monday, the Packers traded a seventh-round pick to the Tennessee Titans for Willis. The Titans invested a third-round pick on Willis in the 2022 NFL Draft, but the Liberty product didn't throw a single touchdown pass in two years. He will now serve as the backup for Love, who's +1400 to win the MVP award.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Connor Joe to hit a single

Joe is 7-13 (.539) in his career against Justin Steele, and six of those hits were singles. That's par for the course for the Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman, as 60.5 percent of his hits this season have been singles. This is plus money because Joe is in a slump, but he clearly loves this matchup.

Latest Odds:  +120
2 Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox

Garrett Crochet has been on a pitch count for two months, and his last five starts have all finished with at least eight total runs. On the other side, current White Sox hitters have a .389 xwOBA and a .625 xSLG against Andrew Heaney. It's also going to be a scorcher in Chicago, which will help the ball carry more than usual. We'll take the over 8.5.
Wednesday, 5:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Rangers
-1 (-113) -141 > 8.5 (-107)
White Sox
+1.5 (-130) +125 < 8.5 (-108)
3 San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers first 5 under 4.5

We're looking to back both starting pitchers in this matchup. Tobias Myers hasn't given up more than two earned runs in seven straight starts, while Logan Webb has surrendered only four earned runs in his last 37.1 innings of work. Both offenses are also struggling against righties over the last 10 days.

Latest Odds:  -140
4 Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies

We already mentioned how this matchup should be a gold mine for home runs (and runs in general), so we might as well double down. Cal Quantrill has given up 15 earned runs over his last four starts, so both offenses should be able to hammer these below-average pitchers. Give us the over 11.
Tuesday, 8:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Marlins
+1.5 (-145) +130 > 11 (-115)
Rockies
-1 (-107) -148 < 11 (-115)
5 Sean Manaea over 16.5 outs recorded

Manaea has been an effective innings eater for the Mets of late, going 7.0 innings in four of his last five starts. New York trusts him to go deep in games, and although the Arizona Diamondbacks present a tough matchup, they have just a .603 OPS and a 71 wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks. 

Latest Odds:  -120

Betting News & Notes

Look of the Day for 8/27: Tigers to feast on Cueto's pitching

Read More

Golf best bets: Jack Dougherty's outright picks for the Tour Championship

Read More

MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, and preview for Tue. 8/27

Read More

MLB best bets, predictions and picks for Tue. 8/27

Read More

College football predictions: How Week 0 games impact teams in Week 1 and Week 2

Read More

MLB strikeout props for Tue. 8/27: Steele to show his mettle

Read More

WNBA best bets, predictions, picks for Tue. 8/27

Read More
For all the latest betting news, check out the
Yardbarker Sports Betting news hub.
Sports News, Rumors & Quizzes

TERMS OF SERVICE    PRIVACY POLICY    CONTACT US    MY ACCOUNT    SUBSCRIBE    ADVERTISE    JOBS

     

To ensure delivery of these emails, please add news@yardbarker.com to your address book.
If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can safely unsubscribe here.

Copyright 2025 YB Media, LLC.
1534 Plaza Lane, #146, Burlingame, CA 94010.
All Rights Reserved