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September 04, 2024: MLB player props: Brewers' Adames to turn on the power

Happy NFL eve, sports bettors! The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens will kick off the 2024 NFL season on Thursday night, and we can't wait to attack the full weekend of football ahead of us.

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MLB player props: Brewers' Adames to turn on the power

Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames. Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Happy NFL eve, sports bettors! The Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens will kick off the 2024 NFL season on Thursday night, and we can't wait to attack the full weekend of football ahead of us. Before we get there, though, let's try to build up our bankroll with a pair of long-shot MLB props for Wednesday's MLB slate.

Running to the window for these MLB prop bets

James Wood to record 2+ runs (+650 FanDuel)

Nationals at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET

The Washington Nationals have been one of the coldest offenses in baseball over the last month, but Wood has been their best run-producer of late. The outfielder is batting .289, three home runs, 10 RBIs and a team-leading 19 runs over the last 30 days. No other Washington hitter has scored more than 14 runs in that span. 

Wood has scored a run in four of his last five games, and this is a great setup for him to have a big day at the plate. Miami Marlins starter Valente Bellozo is one of the worst starters in MLB right now. The right-hander ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity (92.3 mph), the second percentile in xERA (6.02) and hard-hit rate (48.1 percent) and the third percentile in barrel rate (12.2 percent). Bellozo throws his 4-seam fastball 41.6 percent of the time and averages lower than 90 mph on his heater, which is great news for this prop.

Wood is demolishing fastballs this season, as he's batting .309 and slugging .600 with a whopping 78.8 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers. He should feast in this matchup.

Willy Adames to record 2+ runs (+850 FD)

Cardinals at Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

Adames is on a ridiculous power surge right now with seven home runs, 15 RBIs and nine runs over his last 10 games. He's scored two runs in two of his last six games and four of his last 12. 

The Milwaukee Brewers shortstop should be able to stay hot in a friendly matchup on Wednesday night. In 18 career at-bats against St. Louis Cardinals starter Sonny Gray, Adames is batting .417 and slugging .750 with a home run, a double and six walks. Even if Adames doesn't continue his impressive home run streak, we expect him to reach base at least twice in this familiar matchup. 


In the news ...

Pat Surtain II, Broncos agree to $94 million contract extension — The Denver Broncos are locking up their star cornerback. On Wednesday morning, Surtain and the Broncos reached an agreement on a four-year, $94 million extension to make him the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history. The deal includes $77.5 million in guaranteed money. Surtain starts off the season with a tough matchup against DK Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks, where the Broncos are 5.5-point underdogs on the road. 

Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe reach U.S. Open semifinals to set up all-American matchup — The bottom of the U.S. Open men's bracket is all red, white and blue, as Fritz and Tiafoe won their quarterfinal matches to set up an American semifinal battle. The last American to win a men's Grand Slam was Andy Roddick at the 2003 U.S. Open, but this matchup guarantees the United States will have a player in the championship match. Jannik Sinner, who faces off against Daniil Medvedev in his quarterfinal match, is still the heavy favorite to win the U.S. Open at -115. 

Jim Furyk and Mike Weir finalize captain's picks for the upcoming Presidents Cup — The teams for the 2024 Presidents Cup in Montreal have been finalized. Furyk tabbed Max Homa, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Russell Henley and Keegan Bradley as his six captain's picks for Team USA, while Weird chose Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith, Min Woo Lee, Mackenzie Hughes, Si Woo Kim and Christiaan Bezuidenhout for Team International. The United States is a -250 favorite to win the Presidents Cup. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty


Quick Picks

1 Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays

The Phillies and Blue Jays combined to score 19 runs on Tuesday night, but this matchup should feature much fewer fireworks. Bowden Francis has been untouchable of late with only six hits allowed and two earned runs over his last four starts, and Cristopher Sanchez is elite at getting hitters to chase out of the zone and roll over weak ground balls. We'll take the under 7.5.
Wednesday, 3:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Phillies
-1 (+102) -129 > 7.5 (-115)
Blue Jays
+1.5 (-154) +115 < 7.5 (-118)
2 Caitlin Clark over 31.5 points + assists

Clark is starting to find a groove with 59 points and 24 assists in his last two games, and she should be able to stay hot against a Los Angeles Sparks team that ranks 10th in the WNBA in defensive rating. The star rookie put up 30 points and six assists in her last game against L.A.

Latest Odds:  -108
3 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

The Mets shouldn't be underdogs in this matchup. Tylor Megill is starting to pitch better with two earned runs and eight strikeouts in his last 7.1 innings, and the Red Sox have been ice cold against righties, batting .147 with a .446 OPS and a 22 wRC+ over the last week. 
Wednesday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Red Sox
-1 (+130) -103 > 7.5 (-125)
Mets
+1.5 (-182) -108 < 7.5 (-112)
4 Chicago Cubs -0.5 first 5 innings

This is a huge pitching mismatch we want to target. Shota Imanaga shut down the Pittsburgh Pirates in seven shutout innings earlier this season, while Domingo German has given up 10 earned runs and five walks in his last 5.2 innings of work. Give us the Mets on the moneyline. 

Latest Odds:  -125
5 Bobby Miller under 4.5 hits allowed 

Miller has been terrible this season with his 7.25 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, but this is the perfect get-right spot for him. The Los Angeles Angels are batting only .168 with a .182 BAPIP against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Show us something, Bobby. 

Latest Odds:  +110

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