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September 11, 2024: MLB bets: Big pay for Big K Overs

The first few days without football after Week 1 of the NFL season hit like a ton of bricks, but we have a solution to get us out of this funk before "Thursday Night Football" returns.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB bets: Big pay for Big K Overs

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Bowden Francis. Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The first few days without football after Week 1 of the NFL season hit like a ton of bricks, but we have a solution to get us out of this funk before "Thursday Night Football" returns. Let's head to the diamond on Wednesday and gun for some big payouts with two alternate line strikeout props in juicy matchups.

A great hump day for Ks

Zack Wheeler 10+ strikeouts (+400 DraftKings)

Wheeler hasn't recorded 10 strikeouts in a start since May 6, but we think he has double-digit upside in this matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays have been abysmal against right-handed pitching for a month. They rank 29th in MLB in batting average (.219), 28th in OPS (.635) and wRC+ (83) and 25th in strikeout rate (26.1 percent) against righties over the last four weeks. The Rays also have the lowest zone contact rate (79.4 percent) and the sixth-highest whiff rate in the league (27.6 percent) this season.

Wheeler has a 30.0 percent strikeout rate since the start of August, which would be the seventh-best mark among qualified starters if extrapolated to a whole season. He should dominate in this game. 

Bowden Francis 8+ strikeouts (+360 DK)

Sportsbooks still aren't giving Francis the respect he deserves. Since rejoining the starting rotation last month, the Toronto Blue Jays right-hander has given up only 15 hits and seven earned runs and racked up 45 strikeouts in 40.0 innings. He has an impressive 31.7 percent K rate in that span, going over this line in two of his last five starts.

Now he gets to face the New York Mets, which have the third-highest strikeout rate (28.6 percent) and the fourth-lowest batting average (.208) against righties this month. 

If you want to get crazy, you can parlay these two picks on DraftKings for 22-1 odds. 


In the news ...

Christian McCaffrey considered a 'long shot' to play in Week 2 — Fantasy football managers, shield your eyes. After being a surprise inactive in Week 1, McCaffrey may not be able to suit up in Week 2. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the San Francisco 49ers star is considered a "long shot" to play against the Minnesota Vikings as he continues to deal with calf and Achilles injuries. Considering how good Jordan Mason looked in relief, the 49ers are going to be as patient as possible with McCaffrey to start the season. San Francisco is -6.5 against Minnesota this Sunday. 

Kyle Schwarber breaks the record for most leadoff home runs in a season — Schwarber isn't your typical leadoff hitter, but he sure is effective. On Tuesday, the Philadelphia Phillies slugger crushed his 14th leadoff home run of the year, breaking the MLB record for most in a single season. It marked his 35th homer of the season and his 45th leadoff dinger of his career. Schwarber later left the game after hurting his elbow, but he seems to have avoided a major injury. The Phillies are +480 to win the World Series. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks sharp in return to the mound — As if the Los Angeles Dodgers needed any more help, Yamamoto returned to the mound on Tuesday night for the first time since June 15 and looked great. The star rookie gave up only one run and racked up eight strikeouts in 4.0 innings of work, but the Dodgers lost to the Chicago Cubs, 6-3. Los Angeles is a +330 favorite to win the World Series.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

Francis has been dominant since rejoining Toronto's starting rotation, and the Blue Jays are 5-2 in his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Mets rank 27th in OPS (.601) and 25th in wRC+ (75) against righties this month. Give us the Blue Jays on the moneyline. 
Wednesday, 3:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mets
-1 (+102) -122 > 7.5 (-110)
Blue Jays
+1.5 (-164) +112 < 7.5 (-104)
2 Boston Red Sox -0.5 first 5 innings

This bet is all about the starting pitcher matchup. In 59 plate appearances against Dean Kremer, current Red Sox hitters have a .338 xBA, a .469 xwOBA and a .708 xSLG. On the other side, current Orioles hitters have a .243 xBA and a .328 xwOBA in 87 plate appearances against Nick Pivetta. 

Latest Odds:  -114
3 Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

Rockies starter Tanner Gordon has been terrible with a 7.55 ERA and a 1.581 WHIP through seven starts, and Colorado ranks dead last in batting average (.173), OPS (.520) and wRC+ (34) against righties this month. That's by far the worst combination on the MLB slate, so we'll take the Tigers -1.
Wednesday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Rockies
+1.5 (-125) +164 > 8 (-110)
Tigers
-1 (-136) -190 < 8 (-133)
4 Caitlin Clark to record 10+ assists

It took Clark 18 games in the WNBA to record her first 10-assist game, but she's popping them like mints now. The star rookie has racked up 54 assists over her last five games, and this is a great matchup because the Las Vegas Aces and the Indiana Fever rank second and third, respectively, in the WNBA in pace. 

Latest Odds:  +104
5 Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Suzuki is batting only .250 over the last 15 days, but that doesn't tell the story of how well he's swinging the bat. The Chicago Cubs outfielder has a ridiculous 80.0 percent hard-hit rate against righties in 32 at-bats this month. Now he gets to face Bobby Miller, who ranks in the second percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate this year.  

Latest Odds:  -115

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