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September 18, 2024: MLB stretch run: It's time to put up or shut up

There are only two weeks left for contending MLB teams to make their final pushes to the postseason, and a few of those teams need big performances from their starting pitchers on Wednesday night.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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MLB stretch run: It's time to put up or shut up

Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach. Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The MLB regular season is coming down to the finish line. There are only two weeks left for contending teams to make their final pushes to the postseason, and a few of those teams need big performances from their starting pitchers on Wednesday night. Let's check out two of those games and target a few alternate-line strikeout props in juicy matchups. 

Spencer Schwellenbach 8+ strikeouts (+350 FanDuel)

Schwellenbach has been a pleasant surprise for the Atlanta Braves this season. The rookie right-hander ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate (34.9 percent), the 78th percentile in strikeout rate (26.7 percent) and the 75th percentile in whiff rate (28.6 percent) this year. He's recorded at least eight strikeouts in three of his last six starts and six of his last 10. 

This is a great matchup for Schwellenbach because the Cincinnati Reds have the fifth-lowest chase contact rate (52.0 percent) in the league. Cincinnati has a 26.1 percent strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks, and the Braves need Schwellenbach to eat up innings in a crucial game. 

Freddy Peralta 8+ strikeouts (+240 FD)

Peralta has been struggling to rack up strikeouts of late, as he's recorded five or fewer Ks in six of his last seven starts. This is a great opportunity to turn that around in a matchup he's dominated over the last few seasons. 

In 83 combined plate appearances against Peralta, current Philadelphia Phillies hitters have a .228 xBA and a whopping 36.1 percent strikeout rate. The right-hander struck out 10 batters in his most recent start against the Phillies. Philadelphia is also struggling to avoid whiffs against righties right now, as it has the third-highest K rate in MLB against righties over the last week (27.8 percent). 

If you're feeling risky, you can parlay both bets for a +1430 ticket on FanDuel. 


In the news ...

Dolphins place Tua Tagovailoa on IR after concussion — Tagovailoa will miss at least the next four games after being placed on injured reserve with a concussion. The Miami Dolphins quarterback suffered the third diagnosed concussion of his career on Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills. Considering Tagovailoa's history with head injuries, the Dolphins want to be as cautious as possible before putting him back on the field. Skylar Thompson will take over at QB, but Miami also signed Tyler Huntley as another option under center. The Dolphins are now +170 to make the playoffs. 

Shohei Ohtani inches closer to 50-50 season with 48th home run — Ohtani keeps closing in on the first 50-home run, 50-steal season in MLB history, as he went yard against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night for his 48th homer of the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar has 48 home runs and 48 stolen bases with 11 games left in the regular season. Ohtani is -2500 to win the NL MVP, but Francisco Lindor (+900) isn't out of the race. 

Chiefs sign Kareem Hunt — Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco suffered a fractured right fibula in Sunday's win against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he might be out of the lineup for two months. With uncertainty at the running back position behind Pacheco, the Chiefs signed Hunt to their practice squad on Tuesday. Carson Steele and Samaje Perine will pace the backfield until Hunt is ready to join the active roster. Kansas City is -3.5 against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. 


Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty

Quick Picks

1 Ketel Marte over 2.5 total bases 

Marte should be in for a big day at the plate in what's projected to be the highest-scoring game on Wednesday's slate. In 23 career plate appearances against Austin Gomber, Marte is batting .381 and slugging .762 with two home runs.  

Latest Odds:  +105
2 Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians under 3.5 runs first 5 innings 

These are two of the coldest lineups in MLB against right-handed pitching, and both lineups have struggled in these matchups. Current Guardians hitters have a .260 xwOBA and a .300 xSLG against Bailey Ober, while current Twins hitters are batting just .190 with a .308 xwOBA against Tanner Bibee. 

Latest Odds:  +114
3 Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

DJ Herz and Jose Quintana have been on fire over the last month, but this total is too low for how well these lineups are seeing lefties. The Mets and Nationals rank first and fifth, respectively, in OPS and wRC+ against southpaws over the last two weeks.  
Wednesday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Nationals
+1.5 (-154) +145 > 7 (-115)
Mets
-1 (-108) -162 < 7 (-133)
4 Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

This is strictly a play on the price. The Royals are a much better team than the Tigers, and they should never be home underdogs to this team even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Detroit is starting to limit Skubal's workload with its playoff chances looking slim, so we'll take the Royals on the moneyline. 
Wednesday, 7:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Tigers
-1 (-105) -134 > 7.5 (-112)
Royals
+1.5 (-145) +115 < 7.5 (-122)
5 Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers

This series has a playoff feel to it, and the rubber match surely will with Aaron Nola and Peralta on the mound. Nola has dominated this Brewers lineup in his career, and Peralta has given up one or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts. Give us the under 7.5.
Wednesday, 7:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Phillies
+1.5 (-218) +104 > 7.5 (-108)
Brewers
+1.5 (-194) -115 < 7.5 (-105)

Betting News & Notes

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