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September 24, 2024: NFL Futures we absolutely 'Love'

Week 3 of the NFL season is officially behind us, and the futures markets have adjusted accordingly. After perusing the futures landscape across various sportsbooks, we've identified two vulnerable favorites we'd like to bet against before Week 4 gets underway.

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NFL Futures we absolutely 'Love'

Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

Week 3 of the NFL season is officially behind us, and the futures markets have adjusted accordingly. After perusing the futures landscape across various sportsbooks, we've identified two vulnerable favorites we'd like to bet against before Week 4 gets underway. Let's break 'em down. 

Time to jump on some NFL futures 

Jordan Love to win MVP (+7500 DraftKings)

After Josh Allen's four-touchdown performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills quarterback vaulted up the MVP odds board and overtook Patrick Mahomes as the +200 betting favorite. Allen deserves to be the favorite after leading the Bills to a 3-0 start, but we believe now is the time to play some longer shots down the board. 

The Bills benefitted from an easy schedule to begin the season, but the gauntlet begins this week with three straight road games against the Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans and New York Jets. Would anyone be surprised if Buffalo goes 1-2 or 0-3 in that stretch? We sure wouldn't.

Meanwhile, Love has a good chance to return to the field this week for a crucial matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. The Green Bay Packers helped Love's chances by going 2-0 in his absence. If Love returns this week to knock off the 3-0 Vikings and take the NFC North lead, his odds will be cut in half. This team clearly has the talent and coaching staff to compete for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, so Love has a real shot to win MVP if he returns this week and plays the rest of the season. 

Love's MVP price is +4500 at FanDuel, so scoop up the +7500 while you still can. 

Dan Quinn to win Coach of the Year (+2300 FanDuel) 

Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is the favorite to win this award after leading his team to a 3-0 start, but he might not last at the top of the odds board. Minnesota plays the Packers with (hopefully) a healthy Love back in the lineup this week, then it gets the Jets, Detroit Lions and healthier Los Angeles Rams after that. O'Connell could lose some steam in the Coach of the Year market if the Vikings come back to earth over the next month.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are coming off an impressive victory against the Cincinnati Bengals on MNF. Jayden Daniels was spectacular in the game, and he's only going to improve as the season goes on. The Commanders have now gone two straight games without having to punt, and the schedule eases up from here. Washington's next six games come against the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and New York Giants.

The defense has been a major issue through three games, but we trust Quinn and his defensive mind to turn things around on that side of the ball. The NFC East looks ripe for the taking. The Commanders could win this division with a 9-8 or 10-7 record, which would be a huge improvement from last year's 4-13 campaign. It would be impossible to ignore Quinn at that point. 

In the news ...

Commanders upset Bengals; Bills embarrass Jaguars on Monday Night Football — The NFL picked a great week to host a MNF doubleheader, as the first game of the night was over by halftime when the Bills raced out to a 34-3 lead. Allen and company kept their foot on the gas in the second half and smoked the Jaguars, 47-10. The nightcap was much more competitive, as the Commanders upset the Bengals, 38-33, behind Daniels' brilliant performance. The rookie quarterback went 21-23 for 254 yards and two touchdowns and chipped in 39 yards and a score on the ground. Daniels is now a +175 favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Phillies clinch NL East for first time since 2011 — The Philadelphia Phillies are back in the MLB postseason, this time as National League East champions. On Monday night, the Phillies knocked off the Chicago Cubs to clinch their first division title since 2011. Philadelphia can't take its foot off the pedal just yet, as it's still 0.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the No. 1 seed in the NL. The Phillies are +410 to win the World Series. 

Tigers call up top pitching prospect for final playoff push — Miraculously, the Detroit Tigers have won 11 of their last 14 games to push their way to a tie with the Kansas City Royals for the final wild-card spot in the American League. Now, they're getting aggressive with a playoff berth in reach. On Monday, the Tigers called up former No. 3 overall pick Jackson Jobe to join their bullpen for a postseason push. Detroit is -405 to make the playoffs. 

Quick Picks

1 Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies were up late popping champagne and pouring beer all over each other after clinching the NL East on Monday night, and they're going to start using their untrustworthy arms to save their horses for the playoffs. Give us the Cubs on the moneyline.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Cubs
-1 (-110) -130 > 8 (-112)
Phillies
+1.5 (-152) +120 < 8 (-115)
2 Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Bowden Francis has been lights out for the Blue Jays since joining the starting rotation, and he held the Red Sox to just one hit in 7.0 innings last month. Boston will have trouble putting up runs without Rafael Devers in the lineup, so we'll take the Jays on the moneyline.
Tuesday, 7:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Red Sox
+1.5 (-196) +112 > 7.5 (-120)
Blue Jays
-1 (+116) -125 < 7.5 (-115)
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs

Guerrero is batting .385 and slugging .615 over the last week, and he should be able to stay hot with a juicy matchup on deck. In 23 career plate appearances against Brayan Bello, Guerrero is batting .409 and slugging .818 with five extra-base hits.

Latest Odds:  -145 DK
4 Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Framber Valdez is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, as he's given up one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Logan Gilbert hasn't been as good lately, but current Astros hitters have just a .324 xwOBA in 192 plate appearances against him. Give us the under 7.
Tuesday, 8:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mariners
+1.5 (-188) +120 > 6.5 (-141)
Astros
-1 (+110) -137 < 6.5 (-105)
5 San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers over 4.5 first 5 innings

The Padres and Dodgers rank first and second, respectively, in MLB in OPS and wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. The Dodgers have also smoked Michael King this season, and Landon Knack can give up runs in a hurry due to his high barrel rate (10.6 percent).

Latest Odds:  -105 DK

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