Tigers' potential plan with Tarik Skubal could be a 'catastrophe' in this scenario

While there is no guarantee that the Detroit Tigers will trade two-time American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal this offseason (or any time for that matter), there is one way the loss of Skubal would be a "catastrophe" for the organization, according to one MLB agent.

In an article for ESPN.com, Kiley McDaniel walked through the potential scenarios where the Tigers would either trade Skubal this offseason, trade him at the 2026 trade deadline or keep him and try to resign him as he becomes a free agent after the 2026 season. It's a possibility that the Tigers could lose him in any of the three scenarios, but the one that is the worst would be an absolute nightmare for Detroit.

The "catastrophe" would be if the Tigers decide to hold on to Skubal this offseason and keep him all the way through the 2026 trade deadline, thinking Detroit will make the postseason. However, if the Tigers keep him all season and don't reach October, Skubal could walk away from Detroit with the Tigers receiving nothing but a potential compensation pick (via a qualifying offer) in the following MLB Draft.

"You cannot, under any circumstances, hold Skubal through the trade deadline and miss the playoffs. That would be a catastrophe," an anonymous agent told McDaniel.

While the potential for Skubal's return to go up at a midseason trade versus an offseason deal is higher, it also brings risk as well. Injuries are always a factor as is Detroit eyeing a run to the postseason but stumbling in the later part of the season as the Tigers did in 2025.

Of course, on the other hand, the longer Skubal stays in Detroit, the longer the Tigers have a chance to convince the 29-year-old southpaw that the remaining years of his prime on the mound should be spent in the Motor City.

There are plenty of variables at play when it comes to Skubal's future, including the potential of a work stoppage after this season with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire. As McDaniel points out, with Skubal represented by Scott Boras, it's "unlikely he will sign a deal without at least testing the market, as Boras typically advises clients to hit free agency."

If the Tigers see that's the direction Skubal is heading, dealing him at the trade deadline would be a tough decision, especially if the Tigers are showing well in the AL Central. However, it could be the way to ensure some kind of return for Skubal if there was any chance he leaves.

Outside of signing a long-term deal, there is no perfect outcome for the Tigers and Skubal. However, there are layers of pain to the other scenarios that could be awaiting Detroit as MLB's winter meetings and next season approaches.