A pessimist's guide to the 2025 New England Patriots

With a new head coach, an offensive coordinator on his third stint with the team and a host of player additions, Patriots fans may be feeling optimistic about next season, but here’s why they should lower expectations.

Coaching

Former Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo couldn’t fill Bill Belichick’s shoes in 2024 and was fired as head coach after leading the team to a 4-13 record. He’s been replaced by Mike Vrabel, who also played linebacker for the team and served as head coach of the Titans from 2018-2023.

Including the playoffs, Vrabel went 56-48 in six seasons with Tennessee and was named the AP Coach of the Year in 2021. Unfortunately, he failed to make the postseason with a 13-21 record over the next two seasons. Some believe it was the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who left to become head coach of the Falcons in 2021, that led to Vrabel’s downfall. 

With Smith, Tennessee gained the third-most yards (396.4) and fourth-most points (30.7) per game in 2020. Without him, the Titans dropped to 17th in yards (342.5) and 15th in points (24.6) per contest. By 2023, the team ranked 28th in yards (289.0) and 27th in points (17.9), which ultimately led to Vrabel’s release. 

This year, Vrabel will rely on Josh McDaniels, who spent 13 years as offensive coordinator for the Patriots with a pair of head-coaching gigs in Denver (2009-2010) and Las Vegas (2022-2023).

McDaniels was unable to replicate the success he had with the Patriots at either stop, going 11-17 with the Broncos and 9-16 with the Raiders, where he oversaw last year’s 27th-ranked offense, slightly better than the Patriots 31st-ranked unit.

Free agents

Per Over the Cap, no team spent more money ($364M) on free agents this offseason than New England, which may not be a good thing. 

In 2024, Carolina spent a league-high $258M on free agents and finished the season with a 5-12 record. The year before that, Denver went 8-9 after leading the NFL with $254M spent on free agents. Obviously, free agent spending does not guarantee success, especially when money gets tied up in bad contracts.