Reporter wonders if Falcons will regret first-round selection

"If you had to bet on any player in this draft becoming an All-Pro, you'd bet on Robinson," wrote The Athletic's Mike Sando. "The downside: your team might lament selecting a running back so early, as the Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones recently did regarding Ezekiel Elliott."

When considering the economic implications of taking an RB in the top 10, it's hard to justify.

Per Spotrac, Robinson's projected contract is a fully guaranteed four-year deal worth $21.95M and includes a $12.96M signing bonus.

The Falcons aren't cap-crunched. They have the NFL's 13th-most cap space ($14M) via OverTheCap. Nevertheless, first-round RBs have a low hit rate.

Per ESPN's Bill Barnwell, only five of 13 RBs taken in the first round since 2011 have had a contract extension or fifth-year option activated, the worst among all positions.

From 2011 to 2020, 62.7 percent of RB extensions of three years or more were terminated early, via OTC. The Cowboys recently released Elliott after he signed a six-year, $90M extension in 2019.

The Falcons didn't need an RB either because they finished third in rushing yards (2,718) in 2022. RB Tyler Allgeier rushed for 1,035 yards in 16 games during his rookie season.

Atlanta GM Terry Fontenot argues position is irrelevant and to take the best player, regardless.

"We never focus on a particular position," Fontenot recently told Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio. "When you talk about Bijan Robinson, the impact. He's an impact, offensive player."

Robinson, a 2022 Doak Walker Award winner, can become an elite back. Yet he must carry the Falcons to their first playoff appearance since 2017 to prove he is an exception to the rule: don't take an RB with a top-10 pick.