Champions League Final: Can Inter Milan pull off an upset?

From there Inter cruised through two different Portuguese opponents, defeating Porto 1-0 on aggregate in the Round of 16 and Benfica 5-4 in the quarterfinals. That set up an emotional—and historical—all-Milanese semifinal against local rivals AC Milan. Despite the drama of the occasion, Inter kept its cool and waltzed into the final at the expense of its neighbors.

Most pundits believe Inter will struggle against Manchester City on Sunday; FiveThirtyEight set its  odds of victory at just 25%. And while it's true that City is in excellent goalscoring form, Inter delight in frustrating attack-minded teams.  And the Italian team absolutely has a chance at spoiling City's day.

The secret? Defensive midfield. Inter must nullify City's attacking threats in the center of the park. With most of City's attacks running through Kevin De Bruyne, Inter will want to man-mark him heavily to ensure he cannot pass forward. Manchester United used Fred to mark De Bruyne with great success earlier this season. Inter midfielders Marcelo Brozović and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are eminently capable of playing the same role.

Inter will also benefit massively from an early goal. The team's aggregate victory over Porto was a perfect example of this; after scoring at the end of the first match, Inter was perfectly comfortable sitting back and defending its lead for the entirety of the second. Veteran striker Edin Džeko may be called upon to repeat his magic after setting Inter up with an early goal in the semifinal.

Manage all that—an early goal and a spectacular defensive midfield performance—and Inter's position starts to look surprisingly strong. The club pulled off shock after shock in its Cinderella run to the final, after all. Why not one more?