Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR's throwback weekend at Darlington

NASCAR heads to Darlington, S.C., this weekend for Sunday's Goodyear 400. This will be the season's annual throwback race, with much of the field running special paint schemes.

Here are three drivers — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — who you should consider placing your money on, as well as one who you're probably better off avoiding.

Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+450, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Hamlin has been hot lately and was in a position to win back-to-back races at Kansas before getting shuffled back to fifth on the thrilling final restart. Darlington is one of his best tracks, with four wins and 978 career laps led, and he has the second-highest odds only behind last week's winner Kyle Larson.

He's as safe of a bet as anyone, and after Larson upstaged him and the rest of the field in Kansas, it might be his time to regain the upper hand.

Contender: Ross Chastain (+1300)

Chastain has quietly been heating up these past few weeks, with runs at Texas and Kansas in which he led significant laps. He's always been a threat at Darlington during his run as one of NASCAR's elite drivers since joining Trackhouse Racing in 2022 and might have won this race a year ago had he not crashed with Larson on a late restart while battling for the lead.

At +1300, Chastain provides solid value while being a safe enough pick that you're not spending too much.

Dark horse: Erik Jones (+3000)

Sure, why not? Let's go for what would be one of the feel-good stories of the season, as Jones returns from a two-race absence due to a back injury suffered in a wreck at Talladega. One may think it could take some time to re-acclimate himself, but Darlington just so happens to be a track where Jones has earned two of his three career wins, including his only one in the No. 43 back in 2022.

NASCAR's most iconic ride could be in line for a big day on throwback weekend, and if you're looking for some big money, hammer Jones' +3000 odds.

Avoid: Martin Truex Jr. (+700)

Truex has been rock-solid in 2024, sitting second in the points standings while tied for the most top-10 finishes (seven) of any driver. However, he's yet to win, and at this point, it's a concerning pattern that his No. 19 team and crew chief, James Small, struggle to execute late in races. Kansas last week was only the latest example, as Small elected to take four tires on the final pit stop while most of the rest of the front-runners took two after Truex had been in position to win.

Truex has a great record at Darlington, winning twice and leading 914 laps, but until we can see his bunch put together a full race, it's hard to feel comfortable with those +700 odds.