The 2024 NBA Draft lottery will take place on Sunday afternoon prior to Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Knicks and Pacers. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 3 p.m. ET.
While the 2023 draft class featured surefire No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama — widely considered to be the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James — 2024’s class has no clear-cut front-runner to be the first player off the board, with Alexandre Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher and a handful of other prospects expected to be in that mix.
That lack of clarity at the top of the draft will make the results of the 2024 lottery a little less meaningful than in past years, but it’s safe to assume that the teams with a shot at the No. 1 overall pick will still be hoping their logo is the one on the final card revealed by the NBA on Sunday afternoon.
Here’s what you need to know heading into Sunday’s lottery:
The top 14 picks in the 2024 NBA draft would look like this if the lottery results don’t change the order:
The Pistons and Wizards have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. They each have a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.
From there, the Hornets (13.3%), Trail Blazers (13.2%), Spurs (10.5%), Raptors (9.0%), Grizzlies (7.5%), Jazz (6%) and Rockets (6% across two picks) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection.
When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.
Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.
Still, there haven’t been many major surprises in the years since the new format was implemented.
The Pelicans moved up from No. 7 in the lottery standings in 2019 to claim the first overall pick, which they used on Zion Williamson. Since then, though, every team to win the draft lottery has been in the top three in the lottery standings.
Perhaps we’re due for a more significant shakeup in 2024. There’s a 18.5% chance that a team in the back half of the lottery (Nos. 8-14) wins the No. 1 pick. That works out to better than 1-in-6 odds, and this will be the sixth time the NBA has employed its revamped lottery format.
For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.
For full details on the current lottery format, click here.
The Raptors traded their 2023 first-round pick to the Spurs, but they would keep that selection if it lands within the top six. There’s a 45.8% chance that will happen and a 54.2% chance it will slip to No. 7 or below and be sent to San Antonio. If Toronto retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2025 first-round pick (top-six protected) to the Spurs.
The Jazz would owe the Thunder their first-round pick if it lands outside of the top 10, but since Utah will enter Sunday at No. 8 in the lottery standings, there’s only a 0.5% chance of that happening. In all likelihood, the Jazz will instead owe their top-10-protected 2025 first-rounder to Oklahoma City.
The Rockets acquired the Nets‘ unprotected first-round pick, which will likely land at either No. 9 (50.7%) or No. 10 (25.9%). However, Houston’s own first-rounder has a 92.8% chance of being sent to the Thunder. It will probably be the No. 12 pick, but if it moves into the top four (7.2%), the Rockets would keep it.
Finally, the Warriors‘ first-round pick, which projects to be No. 14, will almost certainly be sent to the Trail Blazers. There’s a 96.6% chance it will be the 14th overall pick and be sent to Portland and just a 3.4% chance it will move into the top four and be retained by Golden State.
The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:
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