PGA Championship: Expert bets for Round 3 at Valhalla

We went 1-0-1 in our matchup bets for Round 2 of the PGA Championship, so we're back for more ahead of Round 3. Here are two 18-hole matchup bets we're targeting for Saturday's action at Valhalla Golf Club.

Round 3 matchup: Keegan Bradley > Jordan Spieth (-105 DraftKings)

Our favorite way to handicap 18-hole matchups is to back players who are striking the ball beautifully but maybe not scoring as well as they should be. Well, say hello to Keegan Bradley.

Through two rounds at Valhalla, Bradley ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained from tee to green behind only Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa; yet he's three shots worse than any of them at 6 under because he hasn't been making any putts. The veteran shot a 4-under 67 in the second round despite losing 1.81 strokes from putting. Those putts are going to fall eventually, so as long as he keeps swinging this well, he could go low on Saturday. 

Jordan Spieth is almost impossible to predict on any given day, so we'll take the steady ball striking Bradley brings over the volatile scoring Spieth does. 

Round 3 matchup: Alex Noren > Shane Lowry (-120 DK)

Shane Lowry's performance through two rounds makes almost no sense. The Irishman, who's been incredible off the tee and on approach this season, ranks 98th in the field this week in strokes gained from tee to green. He made the cut at 4 under because he's ninth in the field in putting. Lowry ranks 168th out of 187 players this season in strokes gained on the green, so his putting is likely going to regress on the weekend.

Alex Noren, on the other hand, has been a pillar of consistency this season with seven straight top-25 finishes. He gained strokes from tee to green in all seven of those starts. Noren has a high floor because of how solid he is at all aspects of the game, whereas Lowry is going to come back to earth with his putting.