Despite having just four career starts, Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes is making a case to be the club's representative at the 2024 MLB All-Star Game.
Skenes, the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, has somehow exceeded expectations after entering the majors with the most hype any pitching prospect has received since Stephen Strasburg debuted with the Nationals in 2010.
Pitching on his 22nd birthday Wednesday, Skenes carved up the Detroit Tigers, fanning nine while allowing two runs on three hits across six innings in a 10-2 Pirates win. With another dominant start behind him, Skenes has a 2.45 ERA over his first four outings (22 innings), allowed 15 hits and six earned runs, struck out 30 and issued five walks.
While he hasn't made enough starts to qualify for the league leaderboard, Skenes would rank 14th among starting pitchers in ERA, fourth in WHIP (0.91) and first in strikeouts per nine innings (12.27) if he were eligible.
Let's move on from where Skenes would rank and instead focus on what he's already done, which is nothing short of historic.
As pointed out by MLB Pipeline on X, Skenes is just the 16th player in AL/NL history to strike out 30 or more batters over his first four starts. Only Hideo Nomo of the Dodgers did so in fewer innings, which came during the 1995 season – when he made the All-Star team and was named National League Rookie of the Year.
Skenes is also the fourth pitcher in MLB history to post an ERA of 2.45 or lower with at least 30 strikeouts and five or fewer walks over his first four major league starts. The others are Felix Hernandez with the Seattle Mariners (2005), Masahiro Tanaka with the New York Yankees (2014) and Strasburg (2010).
Of those names, only Tanaka made the All-Star Game that same season. However, Hernandez didn't have a chance to earn an All-Star nod when he came up because he debuted in August while Strasburg made his first career start just over a month before the 2010 Midsummer Classic.
Although the statistical short list provides some insight into how impressive Skenes has been, does it truly warrant his inclusion in the All-Star discussion already? We think so, though with this year's All-Star Game scheduled for July 16 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, there's still plenty of time for Skenes to further cement his case to earn a selection.
What isn't debatable, though, is the fact that Skenes has ace-level stuff and the advanced stats to back it up. Jeff Passan of ESPN believes that Skenes is already establishing himself as one of MLB's premier pitchers. According to Baseball Savant, the former LSU hurler ranks in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity, the 98th percentile in strikeout rate and the 94th percentile in whiff rate.
With a 26-30 record, the Pirates will likely only have one representative in the All-Star Game. Right-handers Mitch Keller and Jared Jones and infielder Connor Joe have made intriguing All-Star cases of their own, but none are needle-movers like Skenes.
It's no secret MLB isn't the best when it comes to promoting its product. After all, you can't even watch your local market team through the MLB.TV app due to blackout restrictions.
Skenes may be on a small-market team, but he is the type of talent with the potential to grow the game. If Skenes continues to pitch close to the level he has until the All-Star balloting concludes, MLB must capitalize on the opportunity to showcase one of its brightest young stars.
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