Five reasons why Mavericks will beat Celtics in NBA Finals

The stage is officially set: The Boston Celtics will face the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, a series that has no shortage of compelling storylines.

The Celtics, who swept the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, have been the best team in the NBA all season. However, Luka Doncic and the playoff-tested Mavericks, coming off a five-game series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, are positioned to prevent Boston from hanging banner No. 18.

Here are five reasons why Dallas will defeat the Celtics in six games in the 2024 NBA Finals. Game 1 is Thursday at Boston.

Doncic will be the best player on the court 

While it doesn't guarantee a winning outcome, having the most talented player in a series is a massive advantage for a team. Fortunately for the Mavericks, they not only have the most talented player in the series, but they have someone who is on an all-time great trajectory in Doncic.

The 25-year-old hasn't slowed this postseason after averaging an Association-leading 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists during the regular season en route to a third-place finish in MVP balloting. Although two of his per-game averages have dipped to 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the playoffs, Doncic leads all players in points and assists this postseason. Doncic controls the pace of every game he plays in, which should continue during the NBA Finals. 

Jayson Tatum’s inconsistency could spell trouble for the Celtics

Tatum has built a reputation of being an inconsistent postseason performer and hasn't helped his case during Boston's current playoff run. Although the five-time All-Star is averaging 26 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists in 14 games, he's shooting just 44.2% from the floor and 29% from three-point range. 

Tatum hasn't had consecutive games during this postseason in which he shot at least 50% from the field. His sporadic play hasn't burned the Celtics yet, but an underwhelming outing or two could prove detrimental to his team's title hopes. 

Kyrie Irving’s NBA Finals experience 

Boston and its former starting point guard Irving meeting once again in the postseason is just one of the many fascinating storylines the Finals has to offer.

Since leaving the Celtics to join the Brooklyn Nets in 2019, Irving is 7-11 when facing his former team, including the playoffs. However, it hasn't been much of a rivalry in some time, as Irving is 0-10 over his past 10 games against the Celtics, which includes being swept in the first round of the 2022 playoffs.

Even so, Irving has proved he can take his game to another level during the NBA Finals, something Boston's duo of Tatum and Jaylen Brown has yet to do. In 13 Finals games, Irving is averaging 27.7 points, 4.2 assists and 4.2 rebounds and shooting 46.8% from the floor and 39.5% from beyond the arc. Boston's stifling defense won't make it easy on him, but expect Irving to turn back the clock and have a few brilliant performances. 

Dallas’ path has it better prepared for the Finals 

You can only play the team in front of you, but there's no question the Celtics have had a much easier path to the NBA Finals than Dallas. Each opponent the Mavericks faced during their run to the Finals won at least 51 games and made up three of the top four seeds in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Celtics faced the Nos. 8, 4 and 6 seeds in the Eastern Conference, all of whom dealt with significant injuries. 

Despite Pacers All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton being unavailable for Games 3 and 4 of the Eastern Conference finals, Boston struggled against Indiana. According to ESPN Analytics (h/t New York Post), Indiana had at least a 90% win probability at some point in the second half in three different games against Boston. The Celtics fought hard to earn those wins, but they won't be so fortunate against Dallas if they have to overcome similar adversity.

Mavericks have the big men to handle Kristaps Porzingis 

Former Maverick Porzingis, who has been sidelined with a calf injury since Game 4 of Boston's first-round playoff series against the Heat, will be the team's biggest X factor in the Finals. On Wednesday, the 7-foot-3 center shared on X that he’ll “be back in line soon.”

While it seems Porzingis is likely on track to return for the start of the Finals, he'll still be affected by his injury. Yet even if he weren't banged up, Dallas' center rotation will make things difficult on Porzingis, as Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are relentless rim runners who will consistently be lob threats throughout the Finals.

The Mavericks also could use Maxi Kleber as a small-ball 5 to pull Porzingis out to the perimeter, which should allow for Doncic and Irving to have more success in the paint.