Champions League best bets: Can Dortmund shock Real Madrid in the final?

If Madrid's rise has been calm and inevitable, Dortmund's has been the exact opposite: wild, unexpected and utterly shocking. It's the David to Madrid's Goliath in every sense, from its place in the game (it's made just two other Champions League finals in its history) to its size (Dortmund is a small city of just 550,000) to its finances (it actually stands to earn more  money if it loses this game than if it wins, thanks to the bonus it will receive from one Jude Bellingham. We'll get to him in a moment.) Dortmund started off this tournament with a loss to PSG and a dire 0-0 draw against AC Milan and took some time to find its footing. It went down 4-1 against Atletico Madrid on aggregate and looked certain to be eliminated. But it rose to the occasion every time it looked beaten, and by the time it met PSG again in the semifinals it was out for blood. It beat the swanky Parisians 2-0 on aggregate and turned Kylian Mbappe into an NPC. Perhaps inspired by its lackluster domestic season — Dortmund finished a disappointing fifth in the Bundesliga — it brought everything in its arsenal to the Champions League. It's the underdog in this final, but it believes it can win. Why wouldn't it? Its journey to get here has already defied logic and reason. Why not one more miracle?

Twenty-two men will be taking the field on Saturday to contest this final, but if you read the British press, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's just one: Jude Bellingham, the great young hope of English soccer, whose influence and promise drapes across this match like fairy lights. Bellingham was born in England but got his big break as a youth prospect at Dortmund in Germany. He spent three years at the club as a teenager before joining Real Madrid this summer in a big-money transfer. Many wondered if 20-year-old Bellingham would be able to deliver upon his immense potential; they shouldn't have. He lit up Europe this season with his play and won the respect of fans and press everywhere. 

For Bellingham, this final is a poignant meeting of past, present and future. He'll play his former team in his home country, all in the hopes of kicking off this Madrid phase of his career with the biggest trophy in the game. For Dortmund, the club that nurtured him, this final represents a win-win situation. If it beats Madrid it will take home the trophy and the prize money; if it doesn't, it will take home a sizable bonus — a bonus worth more than the Champions League winner's check — from Madrid as part of its lucrative Bellingham transfer deal.
But it's not all Bellingham this Saturday. The final will also be the grand swan song of one Toni Kroos, Madrid's perpetually underrated German midfielder. He's retiring at the top of his field at at 34. Madrid — and European soccer as a whole— will struggle to replace him.
Here are the bets we're looking at as we close out the European soccer season:

Result. Madrid is the clear favorite here; there's no getting around it. You're simply not going to get the payout you're hoping for by backing them outright at -163. But bettors eyeing a Madrid victory might find some value in backing them to win while conceding at +225. Dortmund has scored in every single one of its Champions League matches since Matchday 3.

Player to score or assist.  The most interesting tactical matchup on this final will take place on the left flank. Real Madrid is likely to play Lucas Vazquez, an attack-minded fullback, in defense there; Vazquez is more of an offensive player than a defensive one and struggles to track back. Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti has been covering Vazquez by pairing him up with Fede Valverde in midfield; where Vazquez fails, Valverde can step in. Unfortunately for Madrid, it loses a midfielder when that happens — and opens up lots of space on the left side of the field.
Playing directly into that space will be Dortmund's Dutch fullback Ian Maatsen and German winger Karim Adeyemi . Both have blistering pace and can punish teams on the break. We think they'll be eminently capable of outrunning Vazquez and Valverde on the left and could be Dortmund's biggest attacking threat. Maatsen is at +400 to score or assist; Adeyemi is at +260. We think both are worth your time.

Shots on target. One of Dortmund's biggest Champions League successes this season was turning around its luck against PSG. It failed to beat the Parisians twice in the group stages but looked fully in control in the semis, knocking out two professional 1-0 wins. The difference? Norwegian defender Julian Ryerson,  who switched over to the right to guard Kylian Mbappe. Ryerson put in the performance of a lifetime against PSG in the second leg and rendered Mbappe useless.
He'll be asked to repeat that task in the final, but instead of Mbappe Ryerson will take on Madrid's impishly talented Brazilian forward Vinicius Jr. We think Ryerson is up to the task, but we do expect Vini to break through and get a few shots off over the course of this game. Vini is at +137 to knock out two or more shots on target; considering he scored the winning goal in the final two years ago, those are odds we're happy to take.

The Champions League Final kicks off this Saturday, June 1 at 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT on CBS US / TUDN / Paramount+.